{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b16ddb6-a2b7-417a-aa31-f07319ca2991", "symbol": "83010", "name": "iShares Asia Trust - iShares Core MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.418, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.694, "architecture_energy": 21.37, "architecture_maturity": 63.788, "architecture_confidence": 75.588, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.33, "rotation_up": 16.91, "upward_expansion": 46.0, "deceleration": 87.99, "rotation_down": 38.38, "downward_expansion": 26.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 74.554667, 75.657091, 75.744001, 74.189033 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 74.720001, "trend_reference": 72.204001, "distance_from_trend": 0.034846, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 54.83051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.362745, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.113942, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.115557, "excess_performance": 0.149138, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034846, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062478, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.362745, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113726, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.111139, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089972, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115557, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.678899, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 170100, "relative_activity": 1.628452, "balance": 0.678899, "dry_up": 3.52592, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037823, "annualized_volatility": 0.240634, "from_high_reference": -0.078214, "from_low_reference": 7.243749 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.204001, "fair_value_reference": 54.83051, "structural_low": 63.439999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.004415, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.006144, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.121753, "worst_return": -0.034151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.038049, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.014633, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.199507, "worst_return": -0.01573, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0642, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.037716, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.139231, "worst_return": 0.014955, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030561, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039484, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029974, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.158759, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 6.110034, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 71.919998, "volume": 491100, "typical_volume": 57150.0, "trend": 71.204667, "fair_value": 54.274016, "relative_strength": 13.234063, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.764295, "energy": 20.318804, "activity_lines": [ 75.942667, 76.919273, 75.36981, 73.577549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 73.980003, "volume": 205000, "typical_volume": 67380.0, "trend": 71.562667, "fair_value": 54.444207, "relative_strength": 14.056673, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.453677, "energy": 26.716297, "activity_lines": [ 74.866667, 76.336728, 75.460572, 73.756603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 75.459999, "volume": 607000, "typical_volume": 96540.0, "trend": 71.914667, "fair_value": 54.636512, "relative_strength": 11.730109, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.364032, "energy": 24.147229, "activity_lines": [ 74.756, 76.056728, 75.660382, 74.008044 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.720001, "volume": 170100, "typical_volume": 104455.0, "trend": 72.204001, "fair_value": 54.83051, "relative_strength": 11.113942, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.693528, "energy": 21.370235, "activity_lines": [ 74.554667, 75.657091, 75.744001, 74.189033 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }