{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b1d7295-b0b2-4008-9331-f64a112af924", "symbol": "100910", "name": "KOSEF KRX 100", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.581, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -10.882, "architecture_energy": 29.18, "architecture_maturity": 62.878, "architecture_confidence": 74.997, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.98, "rotation_up": 14.04, "upward_expansion": 43.03, "deceleration": 87.8, "rotation_down": 53.49, "downward_expansion": 39.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 16487.011198, 18089.94233, 18510.180599, 17531.280624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15510.0, "trend_reference": 16041.551465, "distance_from_trend": -0.033136, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7838.713751, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.978641, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.012702, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.325609, "excess_performance": 0.09578, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033136, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.265035, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.978641, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.76014, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.070127, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033578, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.325609, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.160104, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92925, "relative_activity": 1.095188, "balance": 0.160104, "dry_up": 1.933176, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15712, "annualized_volatility": 0.526609, "from_high_reference": -0.357631, "from_low_reference": 1.405143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16041.551465, "fair_value_reference": 7838.713751, "structural_low": 10958.122009, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026412, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.006015, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.318895, "worst_return": -0.022727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.051058, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.009451, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.378205, "worst_return": -0.060551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.080065, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.025517, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.104478, "worst_return": 0.055652, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": 7.012702, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.881759, "energy": 29.179901, "activity_lines": [ 16487.011198, 18089.94233, 18510.180599, 17531.280624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }