{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b21cf61-6628-4f5d-be64-8e476c246782", "symbol": "RAN", "name": "Range International Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.843, "architecture_energy": 28.828, "architecture_maturity": 78.027, "architecture_confidence": 91.345, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.36, "rotation_up": 27.12, "upward_expansion": 20.7, "deceleration": 40.91, "rotation_down": 34.64, "downward_expansion": 61.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.178667, 0.175727, 0.188405, 0.216699 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.18, "trend_reference": 0.257333, "distance_from_trend": -0.300518, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.427372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.578821, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.484923, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.55, "excess_performance": -0.613706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.300518, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132584, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.578821, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22747, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.384849, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.437994, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.55, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.523292, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14634, "relative_activity": 0.358445, "balance": 0.523292, "dry_up": 0.825086, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.217949, "annualized_volatility": 1.554212, "from_high_reference": -0.64, "from_low_reference": 0.44 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.257333, "fair_value_reference": 0.427372, "structural_low": 0.125, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.346154, "directional_follow_through": 0.423077, "median_excess_return": -0.043378, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.154762, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.200251, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.330121, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.542858, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.059699, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.028572, "worst_return": -0.833333, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-07-09", "end": "2021-10-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028572, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2021-10-08", "end": "2021-11-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.217391, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2021-11-12", "end": "2021-11-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2021-11-26", "end": "2021-12-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-01-07", "end": "2022-02-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2022-03-04", "end": "2022-04-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-04-29", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.833333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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-57.581293, "energy": 41.313789, "activity_lines": [ 0.175, 0.176636, 0.202214, 0.234226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.17, "volume": 68960, "typical_volume": 38955.6, "trend": 0.2655, "fair_value": 0.432788, "relative_strength": -39.532138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.960984, "energy": 40.387894, "activity_lines": [ 0.174333, 0.174909, 0.196524, 0.227785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.175, "volume": 35368, "typical_volume": 40406.1, "trend": 0.261333, "fair_value": 0.430064, "relative_strength": -38.827875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.007648, "energy": 32.828324, "activity_lines": [ 0.176, 0.174636, 0.191929, 0.221946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.18, "volume": 14634, "typical_volume": 40826.35, "trend": 0.257333, "fair_value": 0.427372, "relative_strength": -38.484923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.842631, "energy": 28.827845, "activity_lines": [ 0.178667, 0.175727, 0.188405, 0.216699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }