{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b2a1a2a-efd5-4610-95f9-fcba989f7328", "symbol": "TT8", "name": "The Trade Desk, Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -86.32, "architecture_energy": 73.251, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.85, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.88, "rotation_up": 14.28, "upward_expansion": 12.98, "deceleration": 42.65, "rotation_down": 73.08, "downward_expansion": 86.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.418667, 15.307636, 16.513867, 17.648112 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.99, "trend_reference": 19.700333, "distance_from_trend": -0.391381, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 62.716089, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.808821, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -60.2944, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.47134, "excess_performance": -0.53598, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.391381, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229432, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.808821, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087573, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.602944, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070161, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.47134, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.447733, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 657275, "relative_activity": 4.130237, "balance": 0.447733, "dry_up": 2.350254, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168987, "annualized_volatility": 0.630037, "from_high_reference": -0.75263, "from_low_reference": 0.114312 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.700333, "fair_value_reference": 62.716089, "structural_low": 10.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.035953, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.045792, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.511934, "worst_return": -0.291937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.016455, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.054298, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.363137, "worst_return": -0.414641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.147459, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.246669, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.815949, "worst_return": -0.395585, "sufficient": true 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"activity_lines": [ 16.667333, 17.029091, 17.958129, 19.337951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.07, "volume": 174343, "typical_volume": 102984.85, "trend": 21.470667, "fair_value": 63.90423, "relative_strength": -49.018282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.329691, "energy": 50.104529, "activity_lines": [ 16.533333, 16.78, 17.685176, 18.955736 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.11, "volume": 248959, "typical_volume": 109245.05, "trend": 20.925667, "fair_value": 63.47641, "relative_strength": -50.803087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.32007, "energy": 51.763025, "activity_lines": [ 16.080667, 16.405273, 17.340033, 18.54537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.4, "volume": 415476, "typical_volume": 128472.65, "trend": 20.371833, "fair_value": 63.076795, "relative_strength": -48.867091, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.396372, "energy": 49.446184, "activity_lines": [ 15.800667, 16.132, 17.069938, 18.188875 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.99, "volume": 657275, "typical_volume": 159137.35, "trend": 19.700333, "fair_value": 62.716089, "relative_strength": -60.2944, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.320177, "energy": 73.250833, "activity_lines": [ 14.418667, 15.307636, 16.513867, 17.648112 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }