{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b2d62b2-ab49-4605-a409-a4a65cdeb847", "symbol": "C50", "name": "Amundi Core EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.678, "architecture_energy": 68.721, "architecture_maturity": 32.746, "architecture_confidence": 82.334, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 62.54, "upward_expansion": 85.51, "deceleration": 53.98, "rotation_down": 23.05, "downward_expansion": 12.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 171.070665, 169.843634, 166.090094, 163.028902 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 175.160004, "trend_reference": 160.077999, "distance_from_trend": 0.094217, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 133.95391, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.307614, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.64123, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.110153, "excess_performance": -0.060738, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094217, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039238, "read": "Rising" 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141.600006, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.003518, "positive_rate": 0.564103, "directional_follow_through": 0.564103, "median_excess_return": -0.008263, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.105952, "worst_return": -0.08655, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.004363, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.025418, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.131819, "worst_return": -0.060961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.072334, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.009541, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.11837, "worst_return": -0.165307, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -2.972583, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.765838, "energy": 60.731989, "activity_lines": [ 168.473329, 167.627633, 163.692093, 161.273719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 170.479996, "volume": 63330, "typical_volume": 68830.3, "trend": 159.495332, "fair_value": 133.51532, "relative_strength": -2.491437, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.139172, "energy": 54.012698, "activity_lines": [ 169.114662, 168.395997, 164.715903, 162.018278 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 175.160004, "volume": 18753, "typical_volume": 66430.25, "trend": 160.077999, "fair_value": 133.95391, "relative_strength": -2.64123, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.678211, "energy": 68.721128, "activity_lines": [ 171.070665, 169.843634, 166.090094, 163.028902 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }