{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b35a29f-f1be-42c9-9256-4a829758bfc0", "symbol": "THEP", "name": "Thermador Groupe SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.454, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.473, "architecture_energy": 55.368, "architecture_maturity": 9.313, "architecture_confidence": 69.214, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.69, "rotation_up": 68.6, "upward_expansion": 81.11, "deceleration": 57.64, "rotation_down": 13.21, "downward_expansion": 7.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 77.533333, 76.578181, 73.882215, 73.02546 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 78.400002, "trend_reference": 72.660303, "distance_from_trend": 0.078994, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 71.890702, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.090544, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.622715, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.016406, "excess_performance": -0.036905, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078994, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006853, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.090544, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140108, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006227, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075317, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016406, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.400946, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13591, "relative_activity": 1.013675, "balance": 1.400946, "dry_up": 1.778854, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040326, "annualized_volatility": 0.236576, "from_high_reference": -0.042735, "from_low_reference": 0.192063 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.660303, "fair_value_reference": 71.890702, "structural_low": 65.768338, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.015466, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.168994, "worst_return": -0.117949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.01192, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017725, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.140371, "worst_return": -0.143006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.006251, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.004586, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.101099, "worst_return": -0.14821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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75.693332, 72.956363, 71.425866, 71.684694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 80.199997, "volume": 36685, "typical_volume": 12885.7, "trend": 72.538129, "fair_value": 71.815118, "relative_strength": 6.797627, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 55.514112, "energy": 81.003959, "activity_lines": [ 77.833332, 74.578181, 72.308547, 72.192286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76.099998, "volume": 20935, "typical_volume": 13261.5, "trend": 72.581363, "fair_value": 71.816375, "relative_strength": 1.165712, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.652235, "energy": 72.70759, "activity_lines": [ 77.826665, 75.245453, 72.779679, 72.422084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.099998, "volume": 24190, "typical_volume": 13468.8, "trend": 72.566308, "fair_value": 71.84293, "relative_strength": -0.183035, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.840861, "energy": 73.205411, "activity_lines": [ 77.359998, 75.772726, 73.23677, 72.649093 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.400002, "volume": 13591, "typical_volume": 13407.65, "trend": 72.660303, "fair_value": 71.890702, "relative_strength": 0.622715, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.472625, "energy": 55.368043, "activity_lines": [ 77.533333, 76.578181, 73.882215, 73.02546 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }