{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b3da630-425a-4484-a2df-d213eb9fc8a3", "symbol": "REJL-B", "name": "Rejlers AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 84.589, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.901, "architecture_energy": 22.806, "architecture_maturity": 17.323, "architecture_confidence": 45.658, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.97, "rotation_up": 57.27, "upward_expansion": 34.66, "deceleration": 41.26, "rotation_down": 15.17, "downward_expansion": 18.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 156.706665, 153.505454, 153.264099, 153.786734 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 160.399994, "trend_reference": 156.59571, "distance_from_trend": 0.024294, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 150.2051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.067873, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.204729, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.041768, "excess_performance": -0.103262, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024294, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066632, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.067873, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067573, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162047, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089813, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041768, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.054807, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65365, "relative_activity": 0.286784, "balance": 2.054807, "dry_up": 0.482154, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054191, "annualized_volatility": 0.258874, "from_high_reference": -0.200245, "from_low_reference": 0.160036 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 156.59571, "fair_value_reference": 150.2051, "structural_low": 138.271588, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.019545, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.011277, "regime_survival": 0.55, "best_return": 0.149533, "worst_return": -0.106267, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.025379, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.035615, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.203158, "worst_return": -0.11859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.106383, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.000992, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.339358, "worst_return": -0.129747, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 147.800003, "volume": 120144, "typical_volume": 230572.0, "trend": 159.757354, "fair_value": 149.303861, "relative_strength": -22.066263, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.356033, "energy": 51.876828, "activity_lines": [ 147.426667, 150.461819, 151.697105, 154.277766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 155.0, "volume": 216852, "typical_volume": 229776.8, "trend": 158.977892, "fair_value": 149.484685, "relative_strength": -16.758789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.391173, "energy": 31.403189, "activity_lines": [ 149.706667, 151.043637, 151.925296, 153.97084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 153.199997, "volume": 70918, "typical_volume": 230241.9, "trend": 158.093433, "fair_value": 149.688928, "relative_strength": -18.393413, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.692385, "energy": 14.187899, "activity_lines": [ 151.293333, 151.174546, 151.997905, 153.598073 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 157.800003, "volume": 86443, "typical_volume": 229119.75, "trend": 157.182316, "fair_value": 149.940137, "relative_strength": -16.495722, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.338279, "energy": 11.682391, "activity_lines": [ 154.146667, 152.112728, 152.516497, 153.579142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 160.399994, "volume": 65365, "typical_volume": 227923.85, "trend": 156.59571, "fair_value": 150.2051, "relative_strength": -16.204729, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.900672, "energy": 22.806431, "activity_lines": [ 156.706665, 153.505454, 153.264099, 153.786734 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }