{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b40968a-0c01-405b-be47-bddd39534faa", "symbol": "AURA", "name": "Aura Energy Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.516, "architecture_energy": 29.24, "architecture_maturity": 79.274, "architecture_confidence": 61.886, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.59, "rotation_up": 23.0, "upward_expansion": 14.37, "deceleration": 64.63, "rotation_down": 44.12, "downward_expansion": 66.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0575, 0.057364, 0.061036, 0.063866 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.06, "trend_reference": 0.070033, "distance_from_trend": -0.143265, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.088782, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.324188, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.125806, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.351351, "excess_performance": -0.402587, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143265, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111064, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.324188, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109932, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.321258, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140103, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.351351, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.910952, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 865177, "relative_activity": 1.120187, "balance": 0.910952, "dry_up": 0.796482, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.152846, "annualized_volatility": 0.60209, "from_high_reference": -0.571429, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.070033, "fair_value_reference": 0.088782, "structural_low": 0.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.037006, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.258333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.028938, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.546667, "worst_return": -0.3125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.113208, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.177902, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.479167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.162437, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.252752, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.124444, "worst_return": -0.212121, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.096774, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.241379, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.175, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.272727, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.111111, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.105, "volume": 401071, "typical_volume": 560081.85, "trend": 0.12816, "fair_value": 0.107521, "relative_strength": -21.953394, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.797436, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.283971, "energy": 55.255936, "activity_lines": [ 0.056, 0.0585, 0.062964, 0.066603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0525, "volume": 427168, "typical_volume": 807261.55, "trend": 0.071617, "fair_value": 0.089471, "relative_strength": -40.465411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.392638, "energy": 59.188777, "activity_lines": [ 0.054667, 0.057, 0.061798, 0.065316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.06, "volume": 1104251, "typical_volume": 772149.1, "trend": 0.070867, "fair_value": 0.089119, "relative_strength": -32.350729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.394991, "energy": 40.391226, "activity_lines": [ 0.056167, 0.057136, 0.061417, 0.064567 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.06, "volume": 865177, "typical_volume": 772350.85, "trend": 0.070033, "fair_value": 0.088782, "relative_strength": -32.125806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.516362, "energy": 29.240242, "activity_lines": [ 0.0575, 0.057364, 0.061036, 0.063866 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }