{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b414b5a-6d2b-4ba0-ae18-5f5b5f22a545", "symbol": "ALZ", "name": "Alzinova AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.771, "architecture_energy": 82.881, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.311, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.17, "rotation_up": 81.04, "upward_expansion": 94.2, "deceleration": 41.85, "rotation_down": 8.18, "downward_expansion": 18.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.967867, 0.803536, 0.661274, 0.637109 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.064, "trend_reference": 0.6347, "distance_from_trend": 0.676383, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.024346, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.474398, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.118312, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.500705, "excess_performance": 0.439211, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.676383, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.258514, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.474398, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.346217, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011183, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.694878, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.500705, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.420952, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15742718, "relative_activity": 0.938552, "balance": 6.420952, "dry_up": 1.119613, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.196862, "annualized_volatility": 1.278245, "from_high_reference": -0.533333, "from_low_reference": 1.78534 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.6347, "fair_value_reference": 2.024346, "structural_low": 0.382, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.084195, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.073591, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.313364, "worst_return": -0.512805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.298375, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.260867, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.407692, "worst_return": -0.440854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.177305, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.314894, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.703659, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05914, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.109756, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.55641, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.276964, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"fair_value": 2.088749, "relative_strength": -37.350636, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.362756, "energy": 11.136749, "activity_lines": [ 0.570667, 0.5231, 0.51746, 0.55739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.669, "volume": 16981210, "typical_volume": 14536427.95, "trend": 0.614533, "fair_value": 2.071147, "relative_strength": -37.666009, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.464694, "energy": 16.106781, "activity_lines": [ 0.6133, 0.555436, 0.52934, 0.559147 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.84, "volume": 14704286, "typical_volume": 15193896.55, "trend": 0.6152, "fair_value": 2.054544, "relative_strength": -21.183955, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.824455, "energy": 36.435925, "activity_lines": [ 0.700733, 0.613991, 0.55725, 0.573694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.16, "volume": 27690663, "typical_volume": 16343709.9, "trend": 0.625867, "fair_value": 2.040282, "relative_strength": 8.729474, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 61.5932, "energy": 67.309286, "activity_lines": [ 0.8708, 0.723736, 0.614412, 0.608842 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.064, "volume": 15742718, "typical_volume": 16773402.4, "trend": 0.6347, "fair_value": 2.024346, "relative_strength": -1.118312, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.770842, "energy": 82.881499, "activity_lines": [ 0.967867, 0.803536, 0.661274, 0.637109 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }