{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b52509b-c1da-43b2-b668-a149f3070bbf", "symbol": "AIME", "name": "BNP PARIBAS EASY II MSCI Europe PAB UCITS ETFEUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.818, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.441, "architecture_energy": 75.644, "architecture_maturity": 46.347, "architecture_confidence": 81.521, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.64, "rotation_up": 57.83, "upward_expansion": 85.61, "deceleration": 55.54, "rotation_down": 27.1, "downward_expansion": 14.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.9996, 13.939091, 13.696914, 13.489531 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.228, "trend_reference": 13.292733, "distance_from_trend": 0.070359, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.910031, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.194623, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.152182, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.083295, "excess_performance": -0.087596, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070359, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034975, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.194623, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071756, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051522, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017423, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083295, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.453472, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3566, "relative_activity": 1.532182, "balance": 3.453472, "dry_up": 0.69423, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014511, "annualized_volatility": 0.156547, "from_high_reference": -0.003641, "from_low_reference": 0.219195 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.292733, "fair_value_reference": 11.910031, "structural_low": 12.116, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.003565, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.001032, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.054589, "worst_return": -0.048113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.045562, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.000709, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.074103, "worst_return": 0.019163, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.086752, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.02561, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.086752, "worst_return": 0.086752, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015972, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002256, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019163, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10522, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", 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11.843839, "relative_strength": -6.237103, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.557267, "energy": 86.595134, "activity_lines": [ 13.9088, 13.734182, 13.424152, 13.291531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.818, "volume": 869, "typical_volume": 2184.7, "trend": 13.174467, "fair_value": 11.859632, "relative_strength": -5.103477, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.016777, "energy": 84.805741, "activity_lines": [ 13.898533, 13.777055, 13.483314, 13.335613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.862, "volume": 1252, "typical_volume": 2212.8, "trend": 13.214733, "fair_value": 11.875524, "relative_strength": -4.482023, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.109567, "energy": 78.54633, "activity_lines": [ 13.888133, 13.815636, 13.545419, 13.37997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.94, "volume": 776, "typical_volume": 2180.45, "trend": 13.255067, "fair_value": 11.89178, "relative_strength": -4.423975, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.190942, "energy": 62.752821, "activity_lines": [ 13.898533, 13.856473, 13.610505, 13.426761 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.228, "volume": 3566, "typical_volume": 2327.4, "trend": 13.292733, "fair_value": 11.910031, "relative_strength": -5.152182, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.440824, "energy": 75.644236, "activity_lines": [ 13.9996, 13.939091, 13.696914, 13.489531 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }