{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b53744a-1056-4fd8-9498-68c0e7ac7562", "symbol": "PRAKIT", "name": "Prakit Holdings Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.86, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.694, "architecture_energy": 69.242, "architecture_maturity": 20.117, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.31, "rotation_up": 25.51, "upward_expansion": 16.93, "deceleration": 38.85, "rotation_down": 53.48, "downward_expansion": 90.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.99, 10.001818, 10.209212, 10.310015 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.0, "trend_reference": 10.379006, "distance_from_trend": -0.036517, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.683695, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.032664, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.84279, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016529, "excess_performance": -0.208854, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036517, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002215, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.032664, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069037, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158428, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046248, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016529, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.216407, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 219100, "relative_activity": 2.806635, "balance": 0.216407, "dry_up": 1.239352, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018462, "annualized_volatility": 0.144459, "from_high_reference": -0.120473, "from_low_reference": 0.04021 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.379006, "fair_value_reference": 9.683695, "structural_low": 9.890756, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.027523, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.045322, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.078652, "worst_return": -0.018018, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.037736, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.008583, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.235955, "worst_return": -0.026549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.121777, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.131775, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.165829, "worst_return": -0.017699, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.87841, "energy": 60.222001, "activity_lines": [ 10.1, 10.318457, 10.486567, 10.47672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.0, "volume": 37800, "typical_volume": 86280.0, "trend": 10.436415, "fair_value": 9.667685, "relative_strength": -18.35821, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.29234, "energy": 66.258731, "activity_lines": [ 10.033333, 10.229228, 10.438467, 10.448203 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.0, "volume": 41200, "typical_volume": 87630.0, "trend": 10.427731, "fair_value": 9.667588, "relative_strength": -18.326684, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.365137, "energy": 71.982419, "activity_lines": [ 10.013333, 10.158182, 10.392049, 10.420047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.0, "volume": 95400, "typical_volume": 83025.0, "trend": 10.422129, "fair_value": 9.670039, "relative_strength": -18.668784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.104022, "energy": 65.26689, "activity_lines": [ 10.006667, 10.103636, 10.346431, 10.392451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.95, "volume": 50000, "typical_volume": 81845.0, "trend": 10.411779, "fair_value": 9.672679, "relative_strength": -18.778404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.871401, "energy": 64.830399, "activity_lines": [ 9.983333, 10.050909, 10.29597, 10.361991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.0, "volume": 22500, "typical_volume": 74045.0, "trend": 10.393852, "fair_value": 9.676658, "relative_strength": -16.896995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.679153, "energy": 63.628916, "activity_lines": [ 9.986667, 10.019091, 10.25087, 10.335425 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.0, "volume": 219100, "typical_volume": 78065.0, "trend": 10.379006, "fair_value": 9.683695, "relative_strength": -15.84279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.693943, "energy": 69.241503, "activity_lines": [ 9.99, 10.001818, 10.209212, 10.310015 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }