{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "6b67d25f-f7ad-4b26-8432-629a49d45b24",
    "symbol": "RIO",
    "name": "Bodegas Riojanas, S.A.",
    "exchange": "MCE",
    "country": "ES",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^IBEX",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -67.445,
    "architecture_energy": 66.165,
    "architecture_maturity": 100.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 96,
    "architecture_tenure": "Extended",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 4.03,
        "rotation_up": 29.66,
        "upward_expansion": 12.0,
        "deceleration": 58.53,
        "rotation_down": 57.91,
        "downward_expansion": 87.67
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.969333,
        0.995727,
        1.19791,
        1.420396
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 1.0,
    "trend_reference": 1.717533,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.41777,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 3.375586,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.703755,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -62.303732,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.578059,
    "excess_performance": -0.70249,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.41777,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.223386,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.703755,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.200569,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.623037,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.200743,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.578059,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.184889,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 59048,
      "relative_activity": 0.914948,
      "balance": 0.184889,
      "dry_up": 1.397291,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.137692,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.380024,
      "from_high_reference": -0.702381,
      "from_low_reference": 0.136364
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 1.717533,
      "fair_value_reference": 3.375586,
      "structural_low": 0.88,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 38,
        "median_return": -0.004875,
        "positive_rate": 0.315789,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.526316,
        "median_excess_return": -0.02772,
        "regime_survival": 0.894737,
        "best_return": 0.140939,
        "worst_return": -0.375,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": -0.041326,
        "positive_rate": 0.166667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.107474,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.130678,
        "worst_return": -0.45,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.089474,
        "positive_rate": 0.285714,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.201063,
        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
        "best_return": 0.220631,
        "worst_return": -0.550929,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.105382,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.315421,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.182486,
        "worst_return": -0.68652,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-03-24",
        "end": "2023-06-16",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.033333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-06-23",
        "end": "2023-07-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.004854,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-07-21",
        "end": "2023-08-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.009756,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2023-09-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.040179,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2023-10-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.004329,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2023-11-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.056522,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2024-01-05",
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        "return": -0.008547,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-02-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.047414,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2024-03-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.013575,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-03-15",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-06-13",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "active": true
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "trend": 1.9046,
        "fair_value": 3.455273,
        "relative_strength": -64.312661,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -74.598495,
        "energy": 87.814505,
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          1.034,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 35785,
        "typical_volume": 53258.65,
        "trend": 1.856283,
        "fair_value": 3.435945,
        "relative_strength": -63.137949,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -72.186538,
        "energy": 80.543292,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.018667,
          1.081818,
          1.366326,
          1.585681
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.92,
        "volume": 219698,
        "typical_volume": 61574.5,
        "trend": 1.80795,
        "fair_value": 3.415475,
        "relative_strength": -65.899256,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -78.660309,
        "energy": 84.159076,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.98,
          1.034182,
          1.30091,
          1.525275
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.945,
        "volume": 46177,
        "typical_volume": 63037.2,
        "trend": 1.762683,
        "fair_value": 3.394915,
        "relative_strength": -64.477249,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.628307,
        "energy": 67.986286,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.961667,
          1.004909,
          1.244064,
          1.469601
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 1.0,
        "volume": 59048,
        "typical_volume": 64537.0,
        "trend": 1.717533,
        "fair_value": 3.375586,
        "relative_strength": -62.303732,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -67.444907,
        "energy": 66.164604,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.969333,
          0.995727,
          1.19791,
          1.420396
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}