{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "6b685231-8f44-4daa-b22d-1c4e743d0f24",
    "symbol": "PFT",
    "name": "Invesco RAFI US Fundamental Value UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 86.997,
    "architecture_energy": 74.344,
    "architecture_maturity": 94.562,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.702,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 5.06,
        "rotation_up": 63.68,
        "upward_expansion": 87.67,
        "deceleration": 65.82,
        "rotation_down": 29.65,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        39.012333,
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        38.047666,
        37.150568
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 39.43,
    "trend_reference": 36.024646,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.094528,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 30.278168,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.302258,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -0.753472,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.166467,
    "excess_performance": -0.004424,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.094528,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.061416,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.302258,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.052963,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.007535,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.00607,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.166467,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.936997,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 499,
      "relative_activity": 0.139337,
      "balance": 0.936997,
      "dry_up": 1.508133,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.011927,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.070997,
      "from_high_reference": -0.002404,
      "from_low_reference": 0.328142
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 36.024646,
      "fair_value_reference": 30.278168,
      "structural_low": 33.244999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 42,
        "median_return": 0.012176,
        "positive_rate": 0.642857,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.642857,
        "median_excess_return": 0.0038,
        "regime_survival": 0.761905,
        "best_return": 0.06415,
        "worst_return": -0.072058,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": 0.03612,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001283,
        "regime_survival": 0.6,
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        "worst_return": -0.066101,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
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        "regime_survival": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": -0.082033,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.04008,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "regime": "balance",
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "relative_strength": 0.238987,
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "relative_strength": 0.760532,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 10459.4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "fair_value": 29.236931,
        "relative_strength": 2.428823,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 94.726089,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 5816,
        "typical_volume": 10687.3,
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        "relative_strength": 1.278246,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": -0.116096,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": 1.723562,
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        "direction": 86.643337,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 38.73,
        "volume": 71,
        "typical_volume": 5329.15,
        "trend": 34.976097,
        "fair_value": 29.801282,
        "relative_strength": -0.792676,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 5712,
        "typical_volume": 5581.65,
        "trend": 35.185032,
        "fair_value": 29.899448,
        "relative_strength": -0.088534,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 82.004863,
        "energy": 89.73695,
        "activity_lines": [
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          37.081895,
          36.254782
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 38.919998,
        "volume": 7049,
        "typical_volume": 5918.1,
        "trend": 35.400286,
        "fair_value": 29.99502,
        "relative_strength": 1.475585,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.856202,
        "energy": 90.968837,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.769665,
          38.426391,
          37.350457,
          36.495748
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 38.875,
        "volume": 10312,
        "typical_volume": 3668.8,
        "trend": 35.61537,
        "fair_value": 30.087568,
        "relative_strength": 1.468675,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.992966,
        "energy": 74.445837,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.841332,
          38.571925,
          37.59319,
          36.719923
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 38.68,
        "volume": 3744,
        "typical_volume": 3597.4,
        "trend": 35.819634,
        "fair_value": 30.180279,
        "relative_strength": 0.294184,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.252993,
        "energy": 68.045164,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.805999,
          38.642497,
          37.795952,
          36.917641
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 39.43,
        "volume": 499,
        "typical_volume": 3581.25,
        "trend": 36.024646,
        "fair_value": 30.278168,
        "relative_strength": -0.753472,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.996967,
        "energy": 74.344428,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.012333,
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          38.047666,
          37.150568
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}