{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b6d557a-7dbb-410f-a1c1-701c4e252c12", "symbol": "VWRA", "name": "Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.509, "architecture_energy": 34.491, "architecture_maturity": 26.981, "architecture_confidence": 68.216, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.61, "rotation_up": 43.64, "upward_expansion": 74.64, "deceleration": 65.82, "rotation_down": 24.56, "downward_expansion": 3.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 189.858665, 189.208726, 187.617808, 184.277203 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 194.639999, "trend_reference": 180.461333, "distance_from_trend": 0.078569, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 145.314295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.339442, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.27928, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.114266, "excess_performance": 0.063031, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078569, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03966, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.339442, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00256, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.032793, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033845, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114266, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.977929, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 912253, "relative_activity": 1.157282, "balance": 1.977929, "dry_up": 1.344668, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042963, "annualized_volatility": 0.140745, "from_high_reference": -0.037865, "from_low_reference": 0.388104 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 180.461333, "fair_value_reference": 145.314295, "structural_low": 140.220001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005812, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004199, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.035586, "worst_return": -0.036071, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.057874, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.059684, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076569, "worst_return": 0.039179, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.12241, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.127711, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.144961, "worst_return": 0.09986, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"volume": 1208677, "typical_volume": 842288.45, "trend": 178.642666, "fair_value": 143.826154, "relative_strength": 2.179262, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.205966, "energy": 31.923908, "activity_lines": [ 188.499998, 188.450543, 185.367427, 182.245849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 187.0, "volume": 1007447, "typical_volume": 832963.5, "trend": 179.184, "fair_value": 144.292628, "relative_strength": 0.869093, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.512711, "energy": 26.682614, "activity_lines": [ 187.954665, 188.235634, 185.945618, 182.785031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 187.419998, "volume": 1111481, "typical_volume": 835651.25, "trend": 179.747333, "fair_value": 144.774679, "relative_strength": -0.17895, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.880586, "energy": 22.492261, "activity_lines": [ 187.729331, 188.065816, 186.48457, 183.316386 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 194.639999, "volume": 912253, "typical_volume": 788272.1, "trend": 180.461333, "fair_value": 145.314295, "relative_strength": 3.27928, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.509471, "energy": 34.490533, "activity_lines": [ 189.858665, 189.208726, 187.617808, 184.277203 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }