{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b7cb4bf-dc9b-4a95-82a5-ed0cca7fd9f8", "symbol": "RSPD", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR S&P 500 EQL WGT CONSUMER DISCRETION ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.329, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.011, "architecture_energy": 31.704, "architecture_maturity": 19.796, "architecture_confidence": 48.994, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.21, "rotation_up": 51.76, "upward_expansion": 48.14, "deceleration": 35.34, "rotation_down": 25.18, "downward_expansion": 13.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.774667, 56.382257, 55.706118, 55.609538 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 58.65, "trend_reference": 55.992905, "distance_from_trend": 0.047454, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.066621, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.1485, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.475483, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.01684, "excess_performance": -0.142465, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047454, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003784, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.1485, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070277, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074755, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065704, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01684, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.580684, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 284984, "relative_activity": 1.09391, "balance": 1.580684, "dry_up": 1.10522, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035223, "annualized_volatility": 0.196631, "from_high_reference": -0.025801, "from_low_reference": 0.153707 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.992905, "fair_value_reference": 51.066621, "structural_low": 50.83614, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.008191, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.004818, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.062578, "worst_return": -0.089579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.102877, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.041436, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.137205, "worst_return": -0.058524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.094179, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.00181, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.136106, "worst_return": -0.159559, "sufficient": false }, 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56.144205, "fair_value": 50.840607, "relative_strength": -9.767354, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.207116, "energy": 15.478565, "activity_lines": [ 55.933234, 55.653327, 55.173261, 55.481209 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.72, "volume": 329611, "typical_volume": 247245.9, "trend": 56.039916, "fair_value": 50.89694, "relative_strength": -10.167181, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.882896, "energy": 12.621494, "activity_lines": [ 55.499347, 55.58611, 55.159082, 55.389325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.83, "volume": 255700, "typical_volume": 251540.95, "trend": 56.02678, "fair_value": 50.974558, "relative_strength": -7.451306, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.911479, "energy": 4.193884, "activity_lines": [ 55.850007, 55.846242, 55.352773, 55.440298 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.65, "volume": 284984, "typical_volume": 260518.7, "trend": 55.992905, "fair_value": 51.066621, "relative_strength": -7.475483, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.011299, "energy": 31.703803, "activity_lines": [ 56.774667, 56.382257, 55.706118, 55.609538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }