{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b881a23-0d09-406c-8e5b-02560a1e3df3", "symbol": "PFFV", "name": "GLOBAL X FDS VARIABLE RATE PFD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.774, "architecture_energy": 14.4, "architecture_maturity": 16.117, "architecture_confidence": 50.535, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.98, "rotation_up": 34.37, "upward_expansion": 56.59, "deceleration": 62.76, "rotation_down": 25.5, "downward_expansion": 18.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.944351, 21.934661, 21.958838, 21.936889 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22.02, "trend_reference": 21.928724, "distance_from_trend": 0.004162, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.842681, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.056486, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.173401, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001816, "excess_performance": -0.123809, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004162, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005374, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.056486, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020807, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101734, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007458, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001816, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.289753, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 898572, "relative_activity": 3.054297, "balance": 1.289753, "dry_up": 1.332953, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007912, "annualized_volatility": 0.04135, "from_high_reference": -0.00755, "from_low_reference": 0.034096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.928724, "fair_value_reference": 20.842681, "structural_low": 21.416321, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.002043, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.003886, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.026988, "worst_return": -0.040014, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.044307, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.023986, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.046183, "worst_return": -0.07583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.010663, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005327, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.08487, "worst_return": -0.104607, "sufficient": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 273991.6, "trend": 21.903899, "fair_value": 20.772149, "relative_strength": -7.829815, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.8906, "energy": 15.013623, "activity_lines": [ 21.902001, 21.944389, 21.946978, 21.930849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.874219, "volume": 210871, "typical_volume": 270062.7, "trend": 21.913073, "fair_value": 20.795264, "relative_strength": -7.256182, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.385635, "energy": 15.598748, "activity_lines": [ 21.883508, 21.926355, 21.944306, 21.928934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.938833, "volume": 227823, "typical_volume": 261315.8, "trend": 21.922458, "fair_value": 20.818686, "relative_strength": -7.677477, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.693595, "energy": 11.351422, "activity_lines": [ 21.902384, 21.922321, 21.947992, 21.930596 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.02, "volume": 898572, "typical_volume": 294199.25, "trend": 21.928724, "fair_value": 20.842681, "relative_strength": -10.173401, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.774174, "energy": 14.399942, "activity_lines": [ 21.944351, 21.934661, 21.958838, 21.936889 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }