{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b8f110c-4c1c-4b92-998b-e5e9a40a52a2", "symbol": "TIA", "name": "Tialis Essential IT PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 75.389, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.203, "architecture_energy": 23.387, "architecture_maturity": 16.918, "architecture_confidence": 41.788, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.01, "rotation_up": 44.31, "upward_expansion": 44.94, "deceleration": 36.73, "rotation_down": 28.5, "downward_expansion": 14.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.515, 0.510364, 0.486857, 0.478602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.515, "trend_reference": 0.5035, "distance_from_trend": 0.02284, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.552436, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.067765, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.40002, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.176, "excess_performance": -0.227235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02284, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121291, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.067765, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.321863, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.311077, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.176, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.424481, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26759, "relative_activity": 0.288627, "balance": 1.424481, "dry_up": 0.194561, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093801, "annualized_volatility": 0.905117, "from_high_reference": -0.544248, "from_low_reference": 0.839286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.5035, "fair_value_reference": 0.552436, "structural_low": 0.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.086957, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.034193, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.493333, "worst_return": -0.340426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.206522, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.198443, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.60625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.076234, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.021739, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.10744, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.226667, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01626, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.347826, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.345133, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046053, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.023438, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.24, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.228395, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.097826, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040404, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.46, "volume": 11050, "typical_volume": 28716.15, "trend": 0.543167, "fair_value": 1.069487, "relative_strength": -27.381149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.230953, "energy": 42.966229, 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0.55109, "relative_strength": -18.935817, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.256552, "energy": 14.697195, "activity_lines": [ 0.506667, 0.507636, 0.465595, 0.479699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.515, "volume": 2218, "typical_volume": 99632.55, "trend": 0.5215, "fair_value": 0.551603, "relative_strength": -19.386813, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.640448, "energy": 12.465422, "activity_lines": [ 0.510333, 0.508273, 0.4725, 0.478828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.515, "volume": 6913, "typical_volume": 97738.7, "trend": 0.512, "fair_value": 0.552115, "relative_strength": -19.763913, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.742242, "energy": 24.27318, "activity_lines": [ 0.513333, 0.509273, 0.47981, 0.478409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.515, "volume": 26759, "typical_volume": 92711.5, "trend": 0.5035, "fair_value": 0.552436, "relative_strength": -19.40002, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.202977, "energy": 23.38692, "activity_lines": [ 0.515, 0.510364, 0.486857, 0.478602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }