{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b915350-6b10-45fe-8ed7-ec2cdd51b055", "symbol": "SMCL", "name": "GRANITESHARES 2X LONG SMCI DAILY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.657, "architecture_energy": 36.708, "architecture_maturity": 37.019, "architecture_confidence": 90.367, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.08, "rotation_up": 18.25, "upward_expansion": 4.03, "deceleration": 55.21, "rotation_down": 54.18, "downward_expansion": 77.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.122453, 11.722645, 15.62592, 17.431365 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.31, "trend_reference": 21.06204, "distance_from_trend": -0.415536, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 69.631899, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.823213, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -74.98665, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.676053, "excess_performance": -0.863506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.415536, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.297065, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 7.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.098127, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.101545, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.098127, "worst_return": 0.098127, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.249641, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098127, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 150.466667, "volume": 189900, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 108.774, "volume": 280198, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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-59.524747, "energy": 58.519232, "activity_lines": [ 10.69824, 13.828041, 16.673087, 18.812316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.46, "volume": 2997644, "typical_volume": 40788729.4, "trend": 21.702818, "fair_value": 70.298433, "relative_strength": -78.510908, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.362304, "energy": 40.965933, "activity_lines": [ 10.50168, 12.482798, 16.017732, 18.037353 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.31, "volume": 3584667, "typical_volume": 36805120.1, "trend": 21.06204, "fair_value": 69.631899, "relative_strength": -74.98665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.656571, "energy": 36.708095, "activity_lines": [ 11.122453, 11.722645, 15.62592, 17.431365 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }