{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b95f8d4-7735-4e19-a282-4acfa1117396", "symbol": "GRQ", "name": "UpHealth Group Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 59.114, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 14.813, "architecture_energy": 14.868, "architecture_maturity": 12.442, "architecture_confidence": 73.316, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 76.59, "rotation_up": 44.58, "upward_expansion": 41.92, "deceleration": 45.21, "rotation_down": 25.72, "downward_expansion": 11.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.154, 0.151509, 0.151457, 0.151353 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.152, "trend_reference": 0.151367, "distance_from_trend": 0.004184, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.167897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.094685, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.14316, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.013333, "excess_performance": -0.141502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004184, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013164, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.094685, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02702, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171432, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050156, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.639576, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.639576, "dry_up": 0.911572, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075911, "annualized_volatility": 0.58491, "from_high_reference": -0.24, "from_low_reference": 0.52 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.151367, "fair_value_reference": 0.167897, "structural_low": 0.126, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.026667, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.002847, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.12963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.027032, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.021245, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.615385, "worst_return": -0.203704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.075686, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.169874, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.307692, "worst_return": -0.240741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.031448, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.225307, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.148936, "worst_return": -0.340995, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126506, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.197183, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019231, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006289, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.109589, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.176923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.263566, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067485, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.27, "volume": 63000, "typical_volume": 93915.0, "trend": 0.229, "fair_value": 0.29524, "relative_strength": 21.923562, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.229425, "energy": 52.735119, "activity_lines": [ 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-27.055407, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.840264, "energy": 57.927154, "activity_lines": [ 0.1412, 0.146891, 0.148957, 0.149503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.163, "volume": 11800, "typical_volume": 10290.0, "trend": 0.149767, "fair_value": 0.171019, "relative_strength": -11.148318, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.336623, "energy": 14.623962, "activity_lines": [ 0.1468, 0.149309, 0.150195, 0.150428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.163, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8790.0, "trend": 0.150867, "fair_value": 0.170365, "relative_strength": -11.358347, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.295595, "energy": 29.180874, "activity_lines": [ 0.1518, 0.151491, 0.151371, 0.151282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.151, "volume": 28300, "typical_volume": 9805.0, "trend": 0.151567, "fair_value": 0.169506, "relative_strength": -18.103852, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.632151, "energy": 4.500282, "activity_lines": [ 0.1522, 0.151327, 0.151343, 0.15129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.152, "volume": 5100, "typical_volume": 10060.0, "trend": 0.151467, "fair_value": 0.168718, "relative_strength": -17.128444, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.981435, "energy": 15.387887, "activity_lines": [ 0.153867, 0.1514, 0.151405, 0.151318 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.152, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9160.0, "trend": 0.151367, "fair_value": 0.167897, "relative_strength": -17.14316, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.812603, "energy": 14.867533, "activity_lines": [ 0.154, 0.151509, 0.151457, 0.151353 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }