{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b994750-37d5-488a-8948-f10ab2fe2345", "symbol": "GSIW", "name": "Garden Stage Limited Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.671, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.95, "architecture_energy": 52.321, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.524, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.73, "rotation_up": 14.37, "upward_expansion": 23.78, "deceleration": 51.48, "rotation_down": 63.69, "downward_expansion": 46.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.344667, 25.541818, 27.336908, 26.441423 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.65, "trend_reference": 26.044003, "distance_from_trend": -0.360697, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 568.103845, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.970692, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.308072, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.445739, "excess_performance": -0.633193, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.360697, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013923, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.970692, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018883, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.453081, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.211803, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.445739, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.410885, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11947, "relative_activity": 0.29912, "balance": 0.410885, "dry_up": 1.377918, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.332317, "annualized_volatility": 1.848022, "from_high_reference": -0.675312, "from_low_reference": 1.08125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.044003, "fair_value_reference": 568.103845, "structural_low": 8.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.379921, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.419388, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.077419, "worst_return": -0.682423, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.223017, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.315267, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.000662, "worst_return": -0.445372, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.445739, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.633193, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.445739, "worst_return": -0.445739, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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31.422827, "activity_lines": [ 30.722, 30.617276, 28.18653, 27.13379 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.2, "volume": 69893, "typical_volume": 702321.65, "trend": 26.46467, "fair_value": 584.007899, "relative_strength": -27.695989, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.050099, "energy": 21.662113, "activity_lines": [ 29.730667, 30.19182, 28.438243, 27.244284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.01, "volume": 34445, "typical_volume": 593137.4, "trend": 26.531003, "fair_value": 579.978928, "relative_strength": -5.968982, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.449694, "energy": 20.028572, "activity_lines": [ 28.921333, 29.782727, 28.66929, 27.343983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.9, "volume": 147344, "typical_volume": 159581.3, "trend": 26.593003, "fair_value": 576.007137, "relative_strength": -4.523317, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.660725, "energy": 18.134577, "activity_lines": [ 28.254667, 29.390182, 28.861242, 27.432305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.0, "volume": 26403, "typical_volume": 43180.75, "trend": 26.41567, "fair_value": 572.042801, "relative_strength": -28.183096, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.440445, "energy": 24.850014, "activity_lines": [ 25.761333, 27.779636, 28.308623, 27.071466 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.65, "volume": 11947, "typical_volume": 39940.5, "trend": 26.044003, "fair_value": 568.103845, "relative_strength": -45.308072, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.949542, "energy": 52.321296, "activity_lines": [ 22.344667, 25.541818, 27.336908, 26.441423 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }