{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6b9b5fea-5d3d-4aa4-b7bd-e15f74a8a65f", "symbol": "43A", "name": "Octopus (APAC) Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.056, "architecture_energy": 67.983, "architecture_maturity": 24.857, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.43, "rotation_up": 15.99, "upward_expansion": 14.92, "deceleration": 38.84, "rotation_down": 64.49, "downward_expansion": 88.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.047933, 0.049236, 0.051457, 0.053604 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.047, "trend_reference": 0.056, "distance_from_trend": -0.160714, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.04298, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.093535, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.647942, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.229508, "excess_performance": -0.384343, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.160714, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002967, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.093535, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199986, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.226479, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.328763, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.229508, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.13295, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 591300, "relative_activity": 0.059186, "balance": 0.13295, "dry_up": 0.117953, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08838, "annualized_volatility": 0.239391, "from_high_reference": -0.338028, "from_low_reference": 0.566667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.056, "fair_value_reference": 0.04298, "structural_low": 0.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.017563, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.552632, "median_excess_return": -0.025692, "regime_survival": 0.868421, "best_return": 0.727273, "worst_return": -0.318182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.123077, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.076542, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 1.578947, "worst_return": -0.468085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.015873, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.03946, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.037037, "worst_return": -0.584615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.365391, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.409916, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.533333, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-02-10", "end": "2023-04-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.337209, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-04-14", "end": "2023-05-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.356522, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-05-26", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.743902, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.344828, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.573946, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.76, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": 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-55.271076, "energy": 37.339233, "activity_lines": [ 0.051533, 0.051745, 0.054367, 0.055753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.05, "volume": 2117200, "typical_volume": 10758020.0, "trend": 0.056433, "fair_value": 0.043332, "relative_strength": -15.277496, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.275903, "energy": 41.007448, "activity_lines": [ 0.051133, 0.051291, 0.053748, 0.055338 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.048, "volume": 1218100, "typical_volume": 10516840.0, "trend": 0.0563, "fair_value": 0.043249, "relative_strength": -19.699817, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.734082, "energy": 43.986457, "activity_lines": [ 0.050067, 0.050618, 0.052986, 0.054794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.047, "volume": 787000, "typical_volume": 10145835.0, "trend": 0.056133, "fair_value": 0.043095, "relative_strength": -21.787717, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.780507, "energy": 56.349701, "activity_lines": [ 0.048933, 0.049891, 0.052186, 0.054194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.047, "volume": 591300, "typical_volume": 9990460.0, "trend": 0.056, "fair_value": 0.04298, "relative_strength": -22.647942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.056426, "energy": 67.983039, "activity_lines": [ 0.047933, 0.049236, 0.051457, 0.053604 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }