{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ba1e0c1-cdc4-447e-afa3-2397ba422176", "symbol": "4765", "name": "Pancolour Ink Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 51.929, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -38.672, "architecture_energy": 64.0, "architecture_maturity": 14.833, "architecture_confidence": 67.812, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.34, "rotation_up": 20.74, "upward_expansion": 22.57, "deceleration": 44.84, "rotation_down": 68.16, "downward_expansion": 64.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.013333, 14.571818, 16.457857, 17.124516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.799999, "trend_reference": 16.976667, "distance_from_trend": -0.010406, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.455128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.313028, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.423057, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.292308, "excess_performance": -0.149064, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010406, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003717, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.313028, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128735, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.304231, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050568, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.292308, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.346906, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 355911, "relative_activity": 1.15406, "balance": 0.346906, "dry_up": 0.560823, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111035, "annualized_volatility": 1.02602, "from_high_reference": -0.467512, "from_low_reference": 0.541284 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.976667, "fair_value_reference": 24.455128, "structural_low": 10.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.143596, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.196078, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.087855, "worst_return": -0.29052, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.285948, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.214037, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.925065, "worst_return": -0.35317, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.546863, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.429418, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.550387, "worst_return": -0.456662, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.222772, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104444, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027523, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 19.299999, "volume": 72100, "typical_volume": 62477.65, "trend": 19.903333, "fair_value": 23.040744, "relative_strength": -1.298784, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.123955, "energy": 68.209978, "activity_lines": [ 15.243333, 15.985454, 17.993095, 17.791398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.6, "volume": 231595, "typical_volume": 447352.35, "trend": 16.886667, "fair_value": 24.526602, "relative_strength": -50.911929, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -65.536132, "energy": 83.353203, "activity_lines": [ 13.923333, 15.025454, 17.290952, 17.445161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.95, "volume": 51780, "typical_volume": 376020.35, "trend": 16.833333, "fair_value": 24.473718, "relative_strength": -49.59227, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -57.830249, "energy": 83.917397, "activity_lines": [ 13.013333, 14.284545, 16.623809, 17.126667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 16.799999, "volume": 355911, "typical_volume": 308399.0, "trend": 16.976667, "fair_value": 24.455128, "relative_strength": -30.423057, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.671566, "energy": 63.999964, "activity_lines": [ 14.013333, 14.571818, 16.457857, 17.124516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }