{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ba7204e-c065-49b6-9a24-bf4509368dbb", "symbol": "S07", "name": "Shangri-La Asia Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.193, "architecture_energy": 25.003, "architecture_maturity": 87.848, "architecture_confidence": 73.118, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.76, "rotation_up": 38.71, "upward_expansion": 21.15, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 20.58, "downward_expansion": 55.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.353333, 4.265091, 4.274992, 4.380494 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.37, "trend_reference": 4.531337, "distance_from_trend": -0.035605, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.772007, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.084243, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.523462, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.126, "excess_performance": -0.280835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035605, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036023, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.084243, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030932, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205235, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054989, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.569774, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81800, "relative_activity": 1.947851, "balance": 0.569774, "dry_up": 1.010835, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037779, "annualized_volatility": 0.268228, "from_high_reference": -0.173913, "from_low_reference": 0.0925 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.531337, "fair_value_reference": 4.772007, "structural_low": 4.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.00082, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023677, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.298901, "worst_return": -0.129032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.001279, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.041771, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.313646, "worst_return": -0.162903, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.015048, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.109503, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.606742, "worst_return": -0.244482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038697, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008529, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004367, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027957, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068894, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-13", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.663942, "energy": 58.314481, "activity_lines": [ 4.184, 4.183787, 4.282708, 4.42043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.2, "volume": 63200, "typical_volume": 37595.0, "trend": 4.563337, "fair_value": 4.788648, "relative_strength": -23.006266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.870083, "energy": 38.140969, "activity_lines": [ 4.203333, 4.180648, 4.262612, 4.395978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.5, "volume": 24700, "typical_volume": 38760.0, "trend": 4.546671, "fair_value": 4.780476, "relative_strength": -17.610999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.027136, "energy": 24.286163, "activity_lines": [ 4.316, 4.235628, 4.274326, 4.391892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.37, "volume": 81800, "typical_volume": 41995.0, "trend": 4.531337, "fair_value": 4.772007, "relative_strength": -20.523462, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.193008, "energy": 25.002945, "activity_lines": [ 4.353333, 4.265091, 4.274992, 4.380494 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }