{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6baadb32-f2bd-457b-bd77-ff3254f0d336", "symbol": "SPQB", "name": "Global X S&P 500 Quarterly Buffer UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.192, "architecture_energy": 65.107, "architecture_maturity": 88.248, "architecture_confidence": 67.43, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.17, "rotation_up": 54.87, "upward_expansion": 85.18, "deceleration": 68.65, "rotation_down": 28.97, "downward_expansion": 11.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.181334, 20.151873, 19.943624, 19.694815 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.325001, "trend_reference": 19.372167, "distance_from_trend": 0.049186, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.70666, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.147873, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.871179, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.09333, "excess_performance": 0.02869, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049186, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02584, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.147873, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026702, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008712, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050122, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.330741, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 219, "relative_activity": 0.324012, "balance": 0.330741, "dry_up": 0.766386, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011025, "annualized_volatility": 0.060307, "from_high_reference": -0.001719, "from_low_reference": 0.135348 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.372167, "fair_value_reference": 17.70666, "structural_low": 18.416, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.013729, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.010394, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.040542, "worst_return": -0.055029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.028559, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.039841, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.083248, "worst_return": -0.138457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.018647, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017828, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029441, "worst_return": -0.066735, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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20.098418, 19.875814, 19.630351 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.325001, "volume": 219, "typical_volume": 675.9, "trend": 19.372167, "fair_value": 17.70666, "relative_strength": -0.871179, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.192466, "energy": 65.107429, "activity_lines": [ 20.181334, 20.151873, 19.943624, 19.694815 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }