{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6bb028be-e2ff-4152-9576-093307492f43", "symbol": "EUS3", "name": "WisdomTree Long USD Short EUR 3x Daily", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 71.741, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.772, "architecture_energy": 38.349, "architecture_maturity": 65.856, "architecture_confidence": 40.217, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.41, "rotation_up": 41.35, "upward_expansion": 67.51, "deceleration": 65.34, "rotation_down": 26.07, "downward_expansion": 17.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 88.601333, 88.851272, 87.348476, 86.327312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 87.010002, "trend_reference": 84.837334, "distance_from_trend": 0.02561, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 91.91774, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.053393, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.866482, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.088441, "excess_performance": -0.08245, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02561, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023382, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.053393, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059516, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108665, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023378, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088441, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.555503, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3625, "relative_activity": 3.237763, "balance": 0.555503, "dry_up": 1.336638, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02257, "annualized_volatility": 0.175731, "from_high_reference": -0.049383, "from_low_reference": 0.156894 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 84.837334, "fair_value_reference": 91.91774, "structural_low": 77.879997, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.015353, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.033324, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.107549, "worst_return": -0.152912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.057173, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.009883, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.213847, "worst_return": -0.207867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.017224, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.143701, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.365695, "worst_return": -0.184058, "sufficient": true }, { 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-4.19066, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.961422, "energy": 89.190628, "activity_lines": [ 90.013332, 89.048545, 87.060428, 85.942086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 88.169998, "volume": 1521, "typical_volume": 1052.95, "trend": 84.722, "fair_value": 91.932868, "relative_strength": -7.325591, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.833556, "energy": 54.414049, "activity_lines": [ 89.435332, 89.081454, 87.259428, 86.179699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 87.010002, "volume": 3625, "typical_volume": 1119.6, "trend": 84.837334, "fair_value": 91.91774, "relative_strength": -10.866482, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.772206, "energy": 38.348899, "activity_lines": [ 88.601333, 88.851272, 87.348476, 86.327312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }