{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6bb2d515-96a4-4a73-b90b-e63f11ffdeff", "symbol": "BUFD", "name": "FT VEST LADDERED DEEP BUFFER ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.633, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.663, "architecture_energy": 69.991, "architecture_maturity": 41.977, "architecture_confidence": 78.335, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.76, "rotation_up": 65.25, "upward_expansion": 87.43, "deceleration": 54.29, "rotation_down": 24.92, "downward_expansion": 11.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.952667, 29.838273, 29.648952, 29.35671 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 30.24, "trend_reference": 29.0105, "distance_from_trend": 0.042381, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.632083, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.179771, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.359378, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.061984, "excess_performance": -0.063641, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042381, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019558, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.179771, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00025, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053594, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00054, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061984, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.396197, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1292891, "relative_activity": 0.945994, "balance": 2.396197, "dry_up": 0.962452, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009135, "annualized_volatility": 0.054845, "from_high_reference": -0.000658, "from_low_reference": 0.121662 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.0105, "fair_value_reference": 25.632083, "structural_low": 27.519, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.009001, "positive_rate": 0.72973, "directional_follow_through": 0.72973, "median_excess_return": -0.006173, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.03273, "worst_return": -0.033578, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.02416, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.015088, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.056668, "worst_return": -0.005548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.059256, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.038939, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.072464, "worst_return": 0.030888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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29.622667, 29.585636, 29.258762, 29.017774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.9, "volume": 1141921, "typical_volume": 1354006.35, "trend": 28.8, "fair_value": 25.422372, "relative_strength": -4.725756, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.218945, "energy": 77.042843, "activity_lines": [ 29.724, 29.653909, 29.350548, 29.092548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.76, "volume": 1155505, "typical_volume": 1346762.5, "trend": 28.852167, "fair_value": 25.473718, "relative_strength": -3.546444, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.47212, "energy": 75.466102, "activity_lines": [ 29.751333, 29.683636, 29.422286, 29.154484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.71, "volume": 1530265, "typical_volume": 1373281.65, "trend": 28.8975, "fair_value": 25.524038, "relative_strength": -3.023815, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.129325, "energy": 70.279109, "activity_lines": [ 29.749333, 29.698, 29.483119, 29.209828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.885, "volume": 1282876, "typical_volume": 1354452.15, "trend": 28.950833, "fair_value": 25.576955, "relative_strength": -3.357219, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.138233, "energy": 66.60066, "activity_lines": [ 29.804333, 29.738909, 29.553476, 29.273538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.24, "volume": 1292891, "typical_volume": 1366700.85, "trend": 29.0105, "fair_value": 25.632083, "relative_strength": -5.359378, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.663003, "energy": 69.99108, "activity_lines": [ 29.952667, 29.838273, 29.648952, 29.35671 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }