{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6bb8c1ca-faee-47e8-8a59-feba8b152146", "symbol": "GGT", "name": "Gabelli Multimedia Trust Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.544, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.372, "architecture_energy": 26.735, "architecture_maturity": 37.736, "architecture_confidence": 70.252, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.24, "rotation_up": 37.71, "upward_expansion": 69.1, "deceleration": 88.54, "rotation_down": 26.04, "downward_expansion": 7.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.117289, 4.113246, 4.11046, 4.057319 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.16, "trend_reference": 3.985801, "distance_from_trend": 0.043705, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.561254, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.168128, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.016148, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.086968, "excess_performance": -0.038656, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043705, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038616, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.168128, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00941, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030161, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044272, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086968, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.57368, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1092942, "relative_activity": 0.747172, "balance": 0.57368, "dry_up": 1.147249, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030259, "annualized_volatility": 0.154247, "from_high_reference": -0.027996, "from_low_reference": 0.218623 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.985801, "fair_value_reference": 3.561254, "structural_low": 3.705065, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.012107, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.034388, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.079482, "worst_return": -0.21843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.023561, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.083778, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.102758, "worst_return": -0.128673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00806, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.05934, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.151793, "worst_return": -0.058077, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.556949, "energy": 20.374681, "activity_lines": [ 4.1182, 4.131568, 4.090985, 4.029925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.07, "volume": 1970290, "typical_volume": 1506597.8, "trend": 3.962686, "fair_value": 3.554183, "relative_strength": -0.793457, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.482579, "energy": 24.864429, "activity_lines": [ 4.106722, 4.11868, 4.095154, 4.03766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.08, "volume": 1391491, "typical_volume": 1504104.55, "trend": 3.97261, "fair_value": 3.557517, "relative_strength": -1.584471, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.911034, "energy": 20.80689, "activity_lines": [ 4.102578, 4.107677, 4.099602, 4.045229 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.16, "volume": 1092942, "typical_volume": 1462771.65, "trend": 3.985801, "fair_value": 3.561254, "relative_strength": -3.016148, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.372034, "energy": 26.735126, "activity_lines": [ 4.117289, 4.113246, 4.11046, 4.057319 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }