{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6bbeec43-3117-4a09-b042-a7196cff2d86", "symbol": "RQFI", "name": "Xtrackers Harvest CSI300 UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.445, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.972, "architecture_energy": 27.81, "architecture_maturity": 48.16, "architecture_confidence": 74.526, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.63, "rotation_up": 14.27, "upward_expansion": 15.49, "deceleration": 72.17, "rotation_down": 60.65, "downward_expansion": 40.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 997.483333, 1011.906818, 1018.409524, 1010.3866 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1009.5, "trend_reference": 999.427942, "distance_from_trend": 0.010078, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 840.126076, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.201605, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.786242, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.043365, "excess_performance": -0.007871, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010078, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021748, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.201605, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037121, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047862, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095316, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043365, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.187459, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14135, "relative_activity": 0.209371, "balance": 0.187459, "dry_up": 0.325003, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032397, "annualized_volatility": 0.158673, "from_high_reference": -0.205351, "from_low_reference": 0.213871 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 999.427942, "fair_value_reference": 840.126076, "structural_low": 929.349976, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.009315, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.009978, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.017406, "worst_return": -0.046686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.093051, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.081743, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.044677, "worst_return": -0.124839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.031763, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.031746, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.11788, "worst_return": -0.166171, 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1009.706232 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1009.5, "volume": 14135, "typical_volume": 67511.6, "trend": 999.427942, "fair_value": 840.126076, "relative_strength": -4.786242, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.971503, "energy": 27.809534, "activity_lines": [ 997.483333, 1011.906818, 1018.409524, 1010.3866 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }