{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "6bc1c122-2692-48a9-b511-899a0a7f4c7c",
    "symbol": "ADB",
    "name": "Aeroporto Guglielmo Marconi di Bologna S.p.A.",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 51.407,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 24.725,
    "architecture_energy": 48.435,
    "architecture_maturity": 8.534,
    "architecture_confidence": 62.257,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 32.17,
        "rotation_up": 64.01,
        "upward_expansion": 51.77,
        "deceleration": 20.16,
        "rotation_down": 16.01,
        "downward_expansion": 24.43
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        9.977333,
        9.815273,
        9.513721,
        9.533245
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 9.98,
    "trend_reference": 9.673555,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.031679,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 7.946029,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.255973,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -8.050182,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.090479,
    "excess_performance": -0.26137,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.031679,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.013233,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.255973,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.098822,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.080502,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.036356,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.090479,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.377896,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 42807,
      "relative_activity": 0.766109,
      "balance": 2.377896,
      "dry_up": 0.55754,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.045398,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.254166,
      "from_high_reference": -0.153588,
      "from_low_reference": 0.283235
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 9.673555,
      "fair_value_reference": 7.946029,
      "structural_low": 8.527987,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.003874,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.007394,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.015267,
        "worst_return": -0.007519,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.005089,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.019294,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.005089,
        "worst_return": -0.005089,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.053435,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.024558,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.053435,
        "worst_return": -0.053435,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.124196,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.020305,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.124196,
        "worst_return": 0.124196,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-03-01",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.041696,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-06-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-07-05",
        "end": "2024-08-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.032663,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-23",
        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.025576,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-01",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.045699,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.064103,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.106792,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.004751,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-09-19",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.124434,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.008696,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-05-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.010073,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-05-29",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
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        "return": 0.023913,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.092077,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.006048,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 104207.95,
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        "fair_value": 7.748985,
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        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 107523.15,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": -10.815782,
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        "direction": -40.67916,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 96752.1,
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        "relative_strength": -12.209843,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "energy": 21.37108,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 80508.65,
        "trend": 9.612267,
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        "relative_strength": -9.658132,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -27.040863,
        "energy": 19.954124,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 8782,
        "typical_volume": 67112.6,
        "trend": 9.609174,
        "fair_value": 7.859388,
        "relative_strength": -12.816288,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 16.255953,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 10.0,
        "volume": 137343,
        "typical_volume": 69796.8,
        "trend": 9.631291,
        "fair_value": 7.876626,
        "relative_strength": -6.200852,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 11.379201,
        "energy": 20.817582,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 10.2,
        "volume": 38181,
        "typical_volume": 67414.55,
        "trend": 9.652374,
        "fair_value": 7.895146,
        "relative_strength": -2.929656,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 36.376348,
        "energy": 50.469003,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.817333,
          9.566182,
          9.327581,
          9.481448
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 9.92,
        "volume": 22397,
        "typical_volume": 60929.25,
        "trend": 9.671823,
        "fair_value": 7.911419,
        "relative_strength": -5.381141,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 23.77373,
        "energy": 52.195558,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.9,
          9.667636,
          9.386521,
          9.498715
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 9.9,
        "volume": 21227,
        "typical_volume": 58714.35,
        "trend": 9.67296,
        "fair_value": 7.928355,
        "relative_strength": -6.130409,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 24.040525,
        "energy": 54.330714,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.941333,
          9.741455,
          9.446737,
          9.513436
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 9.98,
        "volume": 42807,
        "typical_volume": 55875.85,
        "trend": 9.673555,
        "fair_value": 7.946029,
        "relative_strength": -8.050182,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 24.725498,
        "energy": 48.434792,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.977333,
          9.815273,
          9.513721,
          9.533245
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}