{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6bc29c9a-c1b9-40bc-98f3-6e74d07bdcb7", "symbol": "SRUG", "name": "UBS MSCI USA Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hGBP dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.4, "architecture_energy": 58.475, "architecture_maturity": 65.491, "architecture_confidence": 79.163, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.53, "rotation_up": 48.07, "upward_expansion": 76.79, "deceleration": 91.44, "rotation_down": 29.69, "downward_expansion": 14.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 2505.816667, 2503.154545, 2464.109524, 2399.225921 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2576.0, "trend_reference": 2328.829004, "distance_from_trend": 0.106135, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1998.975142, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.28866, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.867514, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.158583, "excess_performance": 0.107348, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.106135, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043477, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.28866, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042325, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.048675, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00284, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.158583, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.438616, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7886, "relative_activity": 0.359195, "balance": 9.438616, "dry_up": 0.471779, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02193, "annualized_volatility": 0.144349, "from_high_reference": -0.000745, "from_low_reference": 0.271157 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2328.829004, "fair_value_reference": 1998.975142, "structural_low": 2026.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.015005, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.002333, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.069632, "worst_return": -0.069869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.021802, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.001417, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.136254, "worst_return": -0.11219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.120759, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.072506, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.144261, "worst_return": -0.241081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037097, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.004434, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009274, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004911, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040749, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", 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"relative_strength": 1.591383, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.386269, "energy": 56.830385, "activity_lines": [ 2488.083333, 2491.013636, 2433.680952, 2372.577976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2465.25, "volume": 17260, "typical_volume": 23541.6, "trend": 2318.259155, "fair_value": 1992.714873, "relative_strength": 0.725303, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.333412, "energy": 46.210566, "activity_lines": [ 2477.8, 2487.290909, 2444.460714, 2382.597479 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2576.0, "volume": 7886, "typical_volume": 21954.65, "trend": 2328.829004, "fair_value": 1998.975142, "relative_strength": 4.867514, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.400039, "energy": 58.47502, "activity_lines": [ 2505.816667, 2503.154545, 2464.109524, 2399.225921 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }