{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6bc2ba23-691e-4333-869a-34e88e403259", "symbol": "TMPV", "name": "Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 65.507, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.54, "architecture_energy": 34.066, "architecture_maturity": 2.757, "architecture_confidence": 66.935, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.46, "rotation_up": 18.16, "upward_expansion": 12.17, "deceleration": 50.96, "rotation_down": 59.69, "downward_expansion": 51.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 338.303333, 343.181095, 350.858442, 349.661018 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 347.0, "trend_reference": 350.314169, "distance_from_trend": -0.009461, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 672.203413, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.483787, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.663935, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.060893, "excess_performance": -0.017184, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009461, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012287, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.483787, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005618, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156639, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111765, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060893, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.770854, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36633448, "relative_activity": 0.977666, "balance": 1.770854, "dry_up": 0.971676, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056195, "annualized_volatility": 0.345128, "from_high_reference": -0.530891, "from_low_reference": 0.179069 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 350.314169, "fair_value_reference": 672.203413, "structural_low": 294.299988, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.005696, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038402, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.06877, "worst_return": -0.134576, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00714, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012808, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.650285, "worst_return": -0.167669, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.082015, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.058246, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.623596, "worst_return": -0.360643, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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348.360493, 351.417966, 350.652954 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 339.75, "volume": 33255097, "typical_volume": 38135284.25, "trend": 350.552502, "fair_value": 673.843492, "relative_strength": -17.913224, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.27338, "energy": 49.148576, "activity_lines": [ 334.716667, 344.924333, 350.854037, 349.890212 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 347.0, "volume": 36633448, "typical_volume": 37470317.55, "trend": 350.314169, "fair_value": 672.203413, "relative_strength": -15.663935, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.539804, "energy": 34.065799, "activity_lines": [ 338.303333, 343.181095, 350.858442, 349.661018 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }