{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6bdf4718-47f6-4d60-8418-df34655523a9", "symbol": "GSK", "name": "GlaxoSmithKline PLC ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.218, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.261, "architecture_energy": 15.69, "architecture_maturity": 18.753, "architecture_confidence": 66.157, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.08, "rotation_up": 22.89, "upward_expansion": 16.45, "deceleration": 51.74, "rotation_down": 40.11, "downward_expansion": 61.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.127333, 52.227636, 52.166546, 52.703609 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 52.96, "trend_reference": 53.134758, "distance_from_trend": -0.003289, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.231553, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.31638, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.948298, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.106426, "excess_performance": -0.232051, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003289, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029896, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.31638, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017768, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039483, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019038, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.106426, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.261859, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16601870, "relative_activity": 0.844539, "balance": 1.261859, "dry_up": 1.181623, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046214, "annualized_volatility": 0.241432, "from_high_reference": -0.127644, "from_low_reference": 0.455485 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.134758, "fair_value_reference": 40.231553, "structural_low": 48.57, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.013002, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.005098, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.076503, "worst_return": -0.056267, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.039524, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.03012, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.068617, "worst_return": -0.127758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.025453, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.034615, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.041521, "worst_return": 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"relative_strength": -1.98978, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.308634, "energy": 17.897938, "activity_lines": [ 52.13, 52.086, 52.229652, 52.787442 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.69, "volume": 30198596, "typical_volume": 19869612.35, "trend": 53.022252, "fair_value": 40.093556, "relative_strength": -2.681323, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.945321, "energy": 22.814211, "activity_lines": [ 51.89, 52.044182, 52.134586, 52.707626 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.96, "volume": 16601870, "typical_volume": 19657912.4, "trend": 53.134758, "fair_value": 40.231553, "relative_strength": -3.948298, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.260939, "energy": 15.690299, "activity_lines": [ 52.127333, 52.227636, 52.166546, 52.703609 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }