{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6be0d26a-7aa0-4e65-9934-ceca7274f368", "symbol": "300250", "name": "Hangzhou CNCR-IT Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.942, "architecture_energy": 50.056, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 66.387, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.39, "rotation_up": 26.92, "upward_expansion": 19.95, "deceleration": 66.85, "rotation_down": 49.08, "downward_expansion": 72.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.653333, 14.585273, 15.974333, 17.56828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.53, "trend_reference": 19.922667, "distance_from_trend": -0.220486, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.185321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.096322, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.026112, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.41241, "excess_performance": -0.41981, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.220486, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162866, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.096322, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.329681, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.300261, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120319, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.41241, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.96495, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85564739, "relative_activity": 2.709837, "balance": 0.96495, "dry_up": 1.971075, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110902, "annualized_volatility": 0.48441, "from_high_reference": -0.549855, "from_low_reference": 0.246388 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.922667, "fair_value_reference": 17.185321, "structural_low": 12.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.011667, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.012557, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.747064, "worst_return": -0.205472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.038103, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.070382, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.768037, "worst_return": -0.385178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.239877, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.184821, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.896328, "worst_return": -0.26615, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.018541, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112245, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.221307, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12887, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.49, "volume": 30551305, "typical_volume": 27163635.6, "trend": 21.356333, "fair_value": 17.218718, "relative_strength": -39.333053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.771698, "energy": 74.251073, "activity_lines": [ 14.628, 15.51, 17.522857, 19.217914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.44, "volume": 32831859, "typical_volume": 26432219.15, "trend": 20.903667, "fair_value": 17.201859, "relative_strength": -37.823177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.4268, "energy": 70.070143, "activity_lines": [ 14.170667, 14.933273, 16.969524, 18.707183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.02, "volume": 32248306, "typical_volume": 25640405.0, "trend": 20.523333, "fair_value": 17.185962, "relative_strength": -39.64768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.682756, "energy": 69.147642, "activity_lines": [ 13.703333, 14.422909, 16.437571, 18.198559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.43, "volume": 98306658, "typical_volume": 28811306.3, "trend": 20.206, "fair_value": 17.182308, "relative_strength": -27.124964, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.568112, "energy": 61.486046, "activity_lines": [ 14.21, 14.466182, 16.184619, 17.869957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.53, "volume": 85564739, "typical_volume": 31575608.4, "trend": 19.922667, "fair_value": 17.185321, "relative_strength": -30.026112, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.942447, "energy": 50.056092, "activity_lines": [ 14.653333, 14.585273, 15.974333, 17.56828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }