{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6be3197b-9de7-4f2f-ac66-da12c19dde0f", "symbol": "IGTI3", "name": "Iguatemi S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.714, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -13.632, "architecture_energy": 30.925, "architecture_maturity": 7.776, "architecture_confidence": 67.997, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.93, "rotation_up": 20.99, "upward_expansion": 24.31, "deceleration": 48.61, "rotation_down": 55.13, "downward_expansion": 44.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.226402, 3.293414, 3.361992, 3.341937 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.24, "trend_reference": 3.313568, "distance_from_trend": -0.022202, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.697829, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.200965, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.476377, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.002071, "excess_performance": 0.059119, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022202, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042643, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.200965, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124331, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004764, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015081, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002071, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.785337, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 287500, "relative_activity": 1.192352, "balance": 0.785337, "dry_up": 1.30827, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074146, "annualized_volatility": 0.276684, "from_high_reference": -0.149606, "from_low_reference": 0.304282 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.313568, "fair_value_reference": 2.697829, "structural_low": 2.978697, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.008248, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.022642, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.194858, "worst_return": -0.085502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.059213, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.031815, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.144112, "worst_return": -0.134615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.054932, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.064778, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.314806, "worst_return": -0.177169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.194477, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.013511, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.633312, "worst_return": -0.167373, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021127, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010169, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043371, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000593, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10101, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003802, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.182098, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093365, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102128, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03876, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.196613, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.522323, "volume": 288900, "typical_volume": 973430.0, "trend": 2.377629, "fair_value": 2.368367, "relative_strength": 2.53867, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"energy": 16.53837, "activity_lines": [ 3.414988, 3.439264, 3.409504, 3.357804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.35, "volume": 286200, "typical_volume": 209110.0, "trend": 3.285702, "fair_value": 2.686694, "relative_strength": 3.117932, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.130627, "energy": 15.402034, "activity_lines": [ 3.406126, 3.417574, 3.40934, 3.362946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.24, "volume": 116700, "typical_volume": 208930.0, "trend": 3.296768, "fair_value": 2.690943, "relative_strength": -0.47231, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.802381, "energy": 3.426003, "activity_lines": [ 3.359721, 3.378248, 3.398823, 3.359997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.08, "volume": 571400, "typical_volume": 232655.0, "trend": 3.303159, "fair_value": 2.693873, "relative_strength": -7.408855, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.220957, "energy": 26.957858, "activity_lines": [ 3.256509, 3.316013, 3.372817, 3.346012 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.24, "volume": 287500, "typical_volume": 241120.0, "trend": 3.313568, "fair_value": 2.697829, "relative_strength": 0.476377, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.631721, "energy": 30.925138, "activity_lines": [ 3.226402, 3.293414, 3.361992, 3.341937 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }