{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6be93337-86d0-4c69-a1f8-5458183cd04c", "symbol": "3289", "name": "Integrated Service Technology Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.652, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.961, "architecture_energy": 48.779, "architecture_maturity": 8.909, "architecture_confidence": 74.757, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.11, "rotation_up": 15.34, "upward_expansion": 25.13, "deceleration": 49.89, "rotation_down": 66.16, "downward_expansion": 54.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 140.120635, 147.89124, 157.188783, 155.68951 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 137.0, "trend_reference": 149.949962, "distance_from_trend": -0.086362, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 122.272628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.120447, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.238909, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.087877, "excess_performance": -0.353495, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086362, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116696, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.120447, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.301043, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.252389, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179579, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087877, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.988592, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3963092, "relative_activity": 0.268015, "balance": 0.988592, "dry_up": 0.289702, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147737, "annualized_volatility": 0.643938, "from_high_reference": -0.369216, "from_low_reference": 0.428391 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 149.949962, "fair_value_reference": 122.272628, "structural_low": 116.586763, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038889, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.011873, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.092024, "worst_return": -0.043166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.082798, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.006778, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.203199, "worst_return": -0.16457, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.432901, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.201169, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.659671, "worst_return": -0.177543, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2026-08-07", "close": 138.5, "volume": 4273057, "typical_volume": 17436660.3, "trend": 149.188557, "fair_value": 122.046237, "relative_strength": -22.479094, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.407674, "energy": 44.013037, "activity_lines": [ 143.356706, 151.673121, 159.501406, 156.475868 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 137.0, "volume": 3963092, "typical_volume": 14786844.7, "trend": 149.949962, "fair_value": 122.272628, "relative_strength": -25.238909, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.960796, "energy": 48.779323, "activity_lines": [ 140.120635, 147.89124, 157.188783, 155.68951 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }