{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6beb74a0-0451-4fdd-8e77-f6043b3c1e9d", "symbol": "VPU", "name": "VANGUARD WORLD FUND VANGUARD UTILITIES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 54.362, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.727, "architecture_energy": 23.186, "architecture_maturity": 28.537, "architecture_confidence": 74.849, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.63, "rotation_up": 27.34, "upward_expansion": 14.38, "deceleration": 46.53, "rotation_down": 45.25, "downward_expansion": 44.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 192.944667, 194.318815, 194.521207, 195.19006 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 188.86, "trend_reference": 195.044573, "distance_from_trend": -0.031709, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 162.965671, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.158894, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.142079, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.010565, "excess_performance": -0.11506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031709, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012984, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.158894, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062319, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121421, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039182, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010565, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.561266, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2005597, "relative_activity": 1.752769, "balance": 0.561266, "dry_up": 1.135226, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034428, "annualized_volatility": 0.183865, "from_high_reference": -0.082536, "from_low_reference": 0.079822 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 195.044573, "fair_value_reference": 162.965671, 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1190360.2, "trend": 193.764422, "fair_value": 161.372778, "relative_strength": -7.309948, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.637984, "energy": 21.86089, "activity_lines": [ 196.464479, 194.771938, 195.449479, 195.369001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 195.22, "volume": 974208, "typical_volume": 1171336.85, "trend": 194.194903, "fair_value": 161.749969, "relative_strength": -6.162403, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.564657, "energy": 19.444134, "activity_lines": [ 196.359783, 195.049729, 195.315939, 195.46291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 199.46, "volume": 1056350, "typical_volume": 1137746.9, "trend": 194.700154, "fair_value": 162.172879, "relative_strength": -3.465239, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.047027, "energy": 26.457947, "activity_lines": [ 197.428667, 196.051286, 195.630541, 195.802593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 191.22, "volume": 1159750, "typical_volume": 1133387.85, "trend": 194.87411, "fair_value": 162.580282, "relative_strength": -8.208813, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.037427, "energy": 3.512655, "activity_lines": [ 195.298667, 195.363594, 195.164323, 195.578067 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 188.86, "volume": 2005597, "typical_volume": 1144244.8, "trend": 195.044573, "fair_value": 162.965671, "relative_strength": -12.142079, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.726717, "energy": 23.186189, "activity_lines": [ 192.944667, 194.318815, 194.521207, 195.19006 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }