{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6becec5a-8146-4661-b212-cb65dd549d98", "symbol": "002046", "name": "Sinomach Precision Industry Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 87.672, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.87, "architecture_energy": 36.934, "architecture_maturity": 63.779, "architecture_confidence": 46.719, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.88, "rotation_up": 16.7, "upward_expansion": 19.37, "deceleration": 69.91, "rotation_down": 68.59, "downward_expansion": 44.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.513999, 54.315061, 55.380349, 53.919791 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 47.349998, "trend_reference": 51.891798, "distance_from_trend": -0.087524, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.602988, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.094856, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.718767, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.052456, "excess_performance": 0.045056, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087524, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.174235, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.094856, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.946911, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.067188, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.374778, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052456, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.537595, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61417275, "relative_activity": 0.951088, "balance": 0.537595, "dry_up": 1.201006, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.179987, "annualized_volatility": 0.637757, "from_high_reference": -0.384665, "from_low_reference": 1.48687 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.891798, "fair_value_reference": 22.602988, "structural_low": 40.68, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.033743, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.007862, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.255019, "worst_return": -0.132265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.188018, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.152689, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.747269, "worst_return": -0.19735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.325027, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.323967, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.881107, "worst_return": -0.150628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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13.813, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.784938, "energy": 13.769369, "activity_lines": [ 56.544, 59.362581, 57.159721, 54.828023 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.139999, "volume": 67920101, "typical_volume": 64522184.4, "trend": 51.752798, "fair_value": 22.373733, "relative_strength": 1.071351, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.002412, "energy": 33.912826, "activity_lines": [ 50.088, 56.249929, 56.009892, 54.203842 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.349998, "volume": 61417275, "typical_volume": 64575796.8, "trend": 51.891798, "fair_value": 22.602988, "relative_strength": 6.718767, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.869818, "energy": 36.934099, "activity_lines": [ 47.513999, 54.315061, 55.380349, 53.919791 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }