{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6bedd92f-a49e-41d5-9e42-4bb3668abe13", "symbol": "IWDP", "name": "iShares Developed Markets Property Yield UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.303, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.029, "architecture_energy": 55.104, "architecture_maturity": 34.962, "architecture_confidence": 64.25, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.5, "rotation_up": 61.84, "upward_expansion": 79.24, "deceleration": 61.09, "rotation_down": 16.77, "downward_expansion": 8.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.152333, 23.017636, 22.652847, 22.358019 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.889999, "trend_reference": 21.975903, "distance_from_trend": 0.041595, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.294758, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.127877, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.719593, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.085816, "excess_performance": -0.085076, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041595, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040683, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.127877, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01959, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077196, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019027, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.085816, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.687077, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30959, "relative_activity": 1.481164, "balance": 0.687077, "dry_up": 1.29685, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022961, "annualized_volatility": 0.134385, "from_high_reference": -0.04246, "from_low_reference": 0.161763 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.975903, "fair_value_reference": 20.294758, "structural_low": 20.443478, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.003451, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.002613, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.068124, "worst_return": -0.053768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.009118, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.005956, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.093809, "worst_return": -0.032519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.027896, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.013693, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.088734, "worst_return": -0.081276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.16915, "energy": 83.979041, "activity_lines": [ 22.945334, 22.699137, 22.332858, 22.081974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.66, "volume": 18428, "typical_volume": 24520.35, "trend": 21.805917, "fair_value": 20.235653, "relative_strength": -1.50427, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.098858, "energy": 87.499408, "activity_lines": [ 23.226334, 22.91291, 22.488686, 22.209396 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.125, "volume": 29417, "typical_volume": 24109.3, "trend": 21.905418, "fair_value": 20.265652, "relative_strength": -4.221127, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.278397, "energy": 64.543213, "activity_lines": [ 23.231334, 22.995364, 22.585543, 22.294498 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.889999, "volume": 30959, "typical_volume": 20901.8, "trend": 21.975903, "fair_value": 20.294758, "relative_strength": -7.719593, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.028799, "energy": 55.103532, "activity_lines": [ 23.152333, 23.017636, 22.652847, 22.358019 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }