{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6bf2b9ff-1803-41a4-9f1b-d84794baa5e9", "symbol": "SUN", "name": "Suncorp Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.851, "architecture_energy": 73.924, "architecture_maturity": 31.136, "architecture_confidence": 89.842, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.41, "rotation_up": 63.92, "upward_expansion": 91.89, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 22.81, "downward_expansion": 16.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.182667, 18.998727, 18.398762, 17.80516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 19.34, "trend_reference": 17.140999, "distance_from_trend": 0.128289, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.022495, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.073103, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.134656, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.171611, "excess_performance": 0.107905, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.128289, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020134, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.073103, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129027, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021347, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117679, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.171611, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.944617, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9757733, "relative_activity": 0.791863, "balance": 6.944617, "dry_up": 0.847403, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033609, "annualized_volatility": 0.222538, "from_high_reference": -0.107929, "from_low_reference": 0.401449 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.140999, "fair_value_reference": 18.022495, "structural_low": 13.8, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.013629, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.009485, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.10911, "worst_return": -0.150725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.048156, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.029514, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.171734, "worst_return": -0.174812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.071846, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.062985, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.240148, "worst_return": -0.304886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.107372, "energy": 70.840055, "activity_lines": [ 18.845333, 18.567636, 17.888762, 17.378412 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.139999, "volume": 12177945, "typical_volume": 15156156.75, "trend": 17.019125, "fair_value": 17.957083, "relative_strength": 6.430926, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.522471, "energy": 71.182802, "activity_lines": [ 18.958666, 18.726363, 18.071571, 17.518778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.190001, "volume": 10238326, "typical_volume": 13784202.3, "trend": 17.071957, "fair_value": 17.986968, "relative_strength": 4.440812, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.707161, "energy": 66.895931, "activity_lines": [ 19.054, 18.864182, 18.236524, 17.658835 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.34, "volume": 9757733, "typical_volume": 12322509.2, "trend": 17.140999, "fair_value": 18.022495, "relative_strength": 2.134656, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.851031, "energy": 73.923594, "activity_lines": [ 19.182667, 18.998727, 18.398762, 17.80516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }