{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6bf3f7fe-179f-4e9c-aac1-c05be0ef6db8", "symbol": "GUNR", "name": "FLEXSHARES TRUST MORNINGSTAR GLOBAL UPSTREAM NAT RES IDX", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.573, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.389, "architecture_energy": 21.815, "architecture_maturity": 32.799, "architecture_confidence": 56.767, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.39, "rotation_up": 41.38, "upward_expansion": 27.42, "deceleration": 41.25, "rotation_down": 19.08, "downward_expansion": 50.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.239333, 51.507609, 52.093475, 52.45244 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 53.02, "trend_reference": 52.495878, "distance_from_trend": 0.009984, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.214434, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.286443, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.648166, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.038734, "excess_performance": -0.086891, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009984, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044473, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.286443, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064781, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026482, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086783, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038734, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.644147, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12371470, "relative_activity": 4.755675, "balance": 1.644147, "dry_up": 1.682929, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02988, "annualized_volatility": 0.156065, "from_high_reference": -0.052616, "from_low_reference": 0.327603 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.495878, "fair_value_reference": 41.214434, "structural_low": 48.79, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.013977, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.020185, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.061426, "worst_return": -0.079502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.024588, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.001813, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.090791, "worst_return": -0.071106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.034693, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.042402, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.282318, "worst_return": -0.058844, 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51.546094, 52.633251, 52.490395 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 50.12, "volume": 869689, "typical_volume": 2366003.15, "trend": 51.659289, "fair_value": 40.851712, "relative_strength": -5.138235, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.351041, "energy": 70.244833, "activity_lines": [ 50.109227, 51.129686, 52.343082, 52.40238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.92, "volume": 947121, "typical_volume": 2311721.65, "trend": 51.862306, "fair_value": 40.934732, "relative_strength": -2.249459, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.978922, "energy": 64.648125, "activity_lines": [ 50.254, 50.932314, 52.144193, 52.354684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.39, "volume": 1135688, "typical_volume": 2182783.9, "trend": 52.082003, "fair_value": 41.02425, "relative_strength": 0.975913, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.515163, "energy": 27.997027, "activity_lines": [ 50.994667, 51.058362, 52.10497, 52.388729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.34, "volume": 3057686, "typical_volume": 2181815.5, "trend": 52.290469, "fair_value": 41.116724, "relative_strength": -0.389812, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.326472, "energy": 11.608107, "activity_lines": [ 51.604667, 51.207087, 52.063947, 52.405374 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.02, "volume": 12371470, "typical_volume": 2601412.15, "trend": 52.495878, "fair_value": 41.214434, "relative_strength": -2.648166, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.388975, "energy": 21.815434, "activity_lines": [ 52.239333, 51.507609, 52.093475, 52.45244 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }