{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6bf62f4b-66f7-454c-a77d-044c4c8b3c62", "symbol": "C", "name": "Citigroup Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.032, "architecture_energy": 22.813, "architecture_maturity": 66.184, "architecture_confidence": 91.915, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.67, "rotation_up": 19.93, "upward_expansion": 53.17, "deceleration": 93.95, "rotation_down": 31.52, "downward_expansion": 19.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 132.95083, 135.174066, 133.106938, 128.96624 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 135.0, "trend_reference": 123.875984, "distance_from_trend": 0.0898, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 78.341611, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.723222, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.445836, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.105589, "excess_performance": -0.020036, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0898, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079908, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.723222, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052544, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.054458, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048772, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105589, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.867926, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51307729, "relative_activity": 0.85681, "balance": 1.867926, "dry_up": 1.054917, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060159, "annualized_volatility": 0.310897, "from_high_reference": -0.087591, "from_low_reference": 0.512462 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 123.875984, "fair_value_reference": 78.341611, "structural_low": 101.52572, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.00509, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.030103, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.206903, "worst_return": -0.103809, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.08129, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.027237, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.156719, "worst_return": 0.046159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.175312, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.082701, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.466792, "worst_return": -0.029391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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57.594822, "energy": 43.406833, "activity_lines": [ 136.554348, 136.238374, 131.491257, 127.060467 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 131.530232, "volume": 54367770, "typical_volume": 62655204.85, "trend": 122.904764, "fair_value": 77.162113, "relative_strength": 8.26475, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.480754, "energy": 27.9813, "activity_lines": [ 134.204888, 135.796542, 132.034651, 127.643396 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 131.788934, "volume": 54892530, "typical_volume": 61488431.3, "trend": 123.380092, "fair_value": 77.73822, "relative_strength": 6.921608, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.778651, "energy": 22.355088, "activity_lines": [ 132.710312, 135.254288, 132.481223, 128.216568 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 135.0, "volume": 51307729, "typical_volume": 59882259.7, "trend": 123.875984, "fair_value": 78.341611, "relative_strength": 5.445836, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.032386, "energy": 22.813479, "activity_lines": [ 132.95083, 135.174066, 133.106938, 128.96624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }