{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6bf99aa0-3970-4063-8a76-32cdd264e4a6", "symbol": "ESLA", "name": "The Est\u00e9e Lauder Companies Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -2.052, "architecture_energy": 4.0, "architecture_maturity": 29.656, "architecture_confidence": 41.279, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.24, "rotation_up": 21.29, "upward_expansion": 26.89, "deceleration": 64.69, "rotation_down": 28.2, "downward_expansion": 46.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.286667, 73.107273, 72.315562, 72.907986 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 75.639999, "trend_reference": 76.462399, "distance_from_trend": -0.010756, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 87.782207, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.138322, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.803523, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.143203, "excess_performance": -0.31745, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010756, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049736, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.138322, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105935, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.218035, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01139, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.143203, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.795775, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.795775, "dry_up": 0.723615, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057298, "annualized_volatility": 0.489908, "from_high_reference": -0.252403, "from_low_reference": 0.300965 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.462399, "fair_value_reference": 87.782207, "structural_low": 58.141465, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.013739, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002627, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.150769, "worst_return": -0.182844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.112168, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.08077, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.143554, "worst_return": -0.332607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.124078, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.236974, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.008785, "worst_return": -0.292707, "sufficient": false 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.118317, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067692, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0724, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.151351, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-20", 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"fair_value": 89.229272, "relative_strength": -24.018207, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.575587, "energy": 22.190304, "activity_lines": [ 72.418667, 73.221242, 71.489462, 73.78335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 70.980003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 95.7, "trend": 77.721862, "fair_value": 88.698564, "relative_strength": -25.453824, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.142197, "energy": 23.322079, "activity_lines": [ 71.845335, 72.788501, 71.510368, 73.306063 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 73.059998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 95.7, "trend": 77.148324, "fair_value": 88.227295, "relative_strength": -22.699425, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.385878, "energy": 18.487755, "activity_lines": [ 72.160001, 72.697819, 71.773479, 73.005297 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.639999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 95.7, "trend": 76.462399, "fair_value": 87.782207, "relative_strength": -21.803523, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.05207, "energy": 3.999603, "activity_lines": [ 73.286667, 73.107273, 72.315562, 72.907986 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }