{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c0059fb-7e2e-4dea-a877-ce0c64baf8a7", "symbol": "603421", "name": "Qingdao Topscomm Communication Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.72, "architecture_energy": 64.938, "architecture_maturity": 37.784, "architecture_confidence": 93.397, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.2, "rotation_up": 20.96, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 54.65, "rotation_down": 65.65, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.653333, 5.820545, 6.51781, 7.040753 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.1, "trend_reference": 7.518667, "distance_from_trend": -0.188686, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.213676, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.154384, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.028889, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.242236, "excess_performance": -0.199032, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.188686, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066893, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.154384, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.30452, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.180289, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227556, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.242236, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.419172, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108419115, "relative_activity": 1.40139, "balance": 0.419172, "dry_up": 0.797413, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101261, "annualized_volatility": 0.44691, "from_high_reference": -0.463028, "from_low_reference": 0.26294 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.518667, "fair_value_reference": 7.213676, "structural_low": 4.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.027484, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.009485, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.526185, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.092913, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.007231, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.600658, "worst_return": -0.303097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.253543, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.134931, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.407365, "worst_return": -0.49213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-10", "close": 5.95, "volume": 35792934, "typical_volume": 107047073.7, "trend": 7.839, "fair_value": 7.329585, "relative_strength": -22.74173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.712876, "energy": 90.055948, "activity_lines": [ 6.140667, 6.574545, 7.304429, 7.595613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.35, "volume": 48482535, "typical_volume": 106419316.45, "trend": 7.739333, "fair_value": 7.298137, "relative_strength": -25.792814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.073375, "energy": 94.01549, "activity_lines": [ 5.841333, 6.267636, 7.067667, 7.435032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.23, "volume": 48395100, "typical_volume": 102719565.85, "trend": 7.638, "fair_value": 7.267555, "relative_strength": -28.00748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.884865, "energy": 92.106001, "activity_lines": [ 5.582, 5.998, 6.832238, 7.27314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.49, "volume": 41472068, "typical_volume": 91067566.8, "trend": 7.554, "fair_value": 7.237696, "relative_strength": -24.431885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.529853, "energy": 85.187285, "activity_lines": [ 5.497333, 5.831818, 6.636714, 7.134559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.1, "volume": 108419115, "typical_volume": 77365408.8, "trend": 7.518667, "fair_value": 7.213676, "relative_strength": -18.028889, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.720223, "energy": 64.93793, "activity_lines": [ 5.653333, 5.820545, 6.51781, 7.040753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }