{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c039115-f9ac-462f-8a2d-a862545e0c8a", "symbol": "ETD", "name": "Ethan Allen Interiors Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.224, "architecture_energy": 47.68, "architecture_maturity": 12.631, "architecture_confidence": 53.334, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.23, "rotation_up": 60.67, "upward_expansion": 53.26, "deceleration": 29.92, "rotation_down": 18.54, "downward_expansion": 16.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.926667, 22.491091, 21.783231, 21.730046 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.71, "trend_reference": 21.895102, "distance_from_trend": 0.082891, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.987111, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.051111, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.499457, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.002636, "excess_performance": -0.122989, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082891, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00874, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.051111, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155318, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094995, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179399, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002636, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.512812, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2872317, "relative_activity": 1.15121, "balance": 1.512812, "dry_up": 0.950178, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065165, "annualized_volatility": 0.243338, "from_high_reference": -0.203292, "from_low_reference": 0.297046 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.895102, "fair_value_reference": 24.987111, "structural_low": 18.28, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.01845, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.032958, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.094769, "worst_return": -0.11583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.001887, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.080023, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.094595, "worst_return": -0.076616, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.064848, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.191936, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.169006, "worst_return": -0.155593, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 25.051096, "relative_strength": -10.152089, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.277115, "energy": 34.392014, "activity_lines": [ 22.421333, 21.986, 21.465026, 21.578072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.4, "volume": 2636826, "typical_volume": 2464518.6, "trend": 21.883388, "fair_value": 25.010054, "relative_strength": -12.117212, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.678209, "energy": 31.344537, "activity_lines": [ 22.451333, 22.143636, 21.563421, 21.6122 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.71, "volume": 2872317, "typical_volume": 2495042.6, "trend": 21.895102, "fair_value": 24.987111, "relative_strength": -9.499457, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.224398, "energy": 47.680161, "activity_lines": [ 22.926667, 22.491091, 21.783231, 21.730046 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }