{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c0b5a87-80c4-4c09-be77-1b1b3b1e5d0d", "symbol": "VECO", "name": "Veeco Instruments Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.235, "architecture_energy": 18.882, "architecture_maturity": 64.662, "architecture_confidence": 74.318, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.71, "rotation_up": 15.8, "upward_expansion": 41.33, "deceleration": 87.34, "rotation_down": 43.29, "downward_expansion": 35.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.056333, 56.818727, 57.904429, 53.418151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 52.785, "trend_reference": 47.021167, "distance_from_trend": 0.12258, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.744647, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.612019, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 20.53831, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.719941, "excess_performance": 0.532488, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.12258, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.278189, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.612019, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.377742, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.205383, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.50075, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.719941, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.738123, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5261322, "relative_activity": 0.764857, "balance": 0.738123, "dry_up": 0.713427, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.213827, "annualized_volatility": 0.751657, "from_high_reference": -0.390685, "from_low_reference": 1.264479 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.021167, "fair_value_reference": 32.744647, "structural_low": 27.3, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.009605, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.018447, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.181172, "worst_return": -0.179911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.076362, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.040429, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.233079, "worst_return": -0.311898, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.258463, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.124891, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.173358, "worst_return": -0.167804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130098, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.374771, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11049, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028911, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.190534, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": 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"volume": 3302648, "typical_volume": 6852835.55, "trend": 45.716667, "fair_value": 32.458846, "relative_strength": 27.384867, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.467785, "energy": 25.335617, "activity_lines": [ 55.034, 60.594727, 58.271048, 52.727634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.0, "volume": 5429173, "typical_volume": 6864569.95, "trend": 46.365333, "fair_value": 32.598462, "relative_strength": 21.216207, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.955574, "energy": 21.016977, "activity_lines": [ 52.382667, 58.366727, 58.000476, 53.003978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.785, "volume": 5261322, "typical_volume": 6878831.9, "trend": 47.021167, "fair_value": 32.744647, "relative_strength": 20.53831, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.235327, "energy": 18.881733, "activity_lines": [ 52.056333, 56.818727, 57.904429, 53.418151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }