{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "6c0bca54-ba51-4266-878f-dad1e76aa601",
    "symbol": "3151",
    "name": "Premia China STAR50 ETF",
    "exchange": "HKG",
    "country": "HK",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^HSI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 29.308,
    "architecture_energy": 24.912,
    "architecture_maturity": 65.226,
    "architecture_confidence": 96,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 41.7,
        "rotation_up": 24.64,
        "upward_expansion": 57.27,
        "deceleration": 88.33,
        "rotation_down": 37.31,
        "downward_expansion": 20.94
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        12.305333,
        12.777818,
        12.427143,
        11.83172
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 12.33,
    "trend_reference": 11.180333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.102829,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 7.395147,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.66731,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 19.158998,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.26332,
    "excess_performance": 0.296901,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.102829,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.122148,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.66731,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.00717,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.19159,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.073743,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.26332,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.093572,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4782000,
      "relative_activity": 1.859564,
      "balance": 2.093572,
      "dry_up": 1.999674,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.116102,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.463312,
      "from_high_reference": -0.218631,
      "from_low_reference": 0.763948
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 11.180333,
      "fair_value_reference": 7.395147,
      "structural_low": 8.68,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.005258,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.019974,
        "regime_survival": 0.444444,
        "best_return": 0.105638,
        "worst_return": -0.056733,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.067633,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.097346,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.235542,
        "worst_return": -0.126445,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.073269,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003852,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.297534,
        "worst_return": -0.110111,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.198246,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.106972,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.626409,
        "worst_return": -0.229917,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.248804,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.081906,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.10467,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.086147,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.05997,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.06599,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.129685,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-14",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.106849,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.063523,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-13",
        "end": "2026-04-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.077813,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-04-10",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.041841,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-05-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.124388,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-15",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.018581,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 6.125,
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        "typical_volume": 751500.0,
        "trend": 7.2675,
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        "typical_volume": 1797833.7,
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        "fair_value": 6.866494,
        "relative_strength": 16.076696,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 22.301502,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 1520703.7,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 1647503.7,
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        "fair_value": 6.944058,
        "relative_strength": 31.404457,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 84.91767,
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        "activity_lines": [
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          10.008
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 1915333.7,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 89.091847,
        "energy": 92.904492,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 1937333.7,
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        "direction": 75.663294,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 11.69,
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        "typical_volume": 1857079.5,
        "trend": 10.0365,
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        "relative_strength": 30.514915,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 81.283992,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 11.75,
        "volume": 1190200,
        "typical_volume": 1794854.5,
        "trend": 10.124,
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        "relative_strength": 31.069902,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.730059,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "relative_strength": 53.003019,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "direction": 86.369367,
        "energy": 66.763097,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 643600,
        "typical_volume": 1681259.5,
        "trend": 10.463,
        "fair_value": 7.158096,
        "relative_strength": 67.349832,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.324243,
        "energy": 78.360429,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.071333,
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          11.046312
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 13.93,
        "volume": 1120800,
        "typical_volume": 1629899.5,
        "trend": 10.628333,
        "fair_value": 7.203865,
        "relative_strength": 56.499422,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.216669,
        "energy": 83.261871,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.48,
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          11.810333,
          11.269989
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 14.63,
        "volume": 5106400,
        "typical_volume": 1865489.5,
        "trend": 10.8115,
        "fair_value": 7.253417,
        "relative_strength": 56.16163,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.798457,
        "energy": 89.034319,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.018,
          13.296182,
          12.152,
          11.528161
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 12.04,
        "volume": 4531100,
        "typical_volume": 1957794.5,
        "trend": 10.916667,
        "fair_value": 7.288128,
        "relative_strength": 25.129822,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.289617,
        "energy": 55.3201,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.496667,
          13.157818,
          12.226143,
          11.607419
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 12.58,
        "volume": 6410511,
        "typical_volume": 2192687.55,
        "trend": 11.030667,
        "fair_value": 7.325981,
        "relative_strength": 27.233555,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 57.949634,
        "energy": 41.331045,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.136,
          13.107455,
          12.343952,
          11.714731
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 11.62,
        "volume": 4845600,
        "typical_volume": 2355240.55,
        "trend": 11.106,
        "fair_value": 7.357391,
        "relative_strength": 12.426834,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.970006,
        "energy": 19.656608,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.515333,
          12.869091,
          12.356762,
          11.752753
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 12.33,
        "volume": 4782000,
        "typical_volume": 2571570.55,
        "trend": 11.180333,
        "fair_value": 7.395147,
        "relative_strength": 19.158998,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 29.30829,
        "energy": 24.911755,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.305333,
          12.777818,
          12.427143,
          11.83172
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}