{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c0d3c18-dd85-4aed-a599-a36d6e5c726c", "symbol": "AFLT3", "name": "Afluente Transmiss\u00e3o de Energia El\u00e9trica S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.786, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.779, "architecture_energy": 17.019, "architecture_maturity": 15.951, "architecture_confidence": 64.713, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.74, "rotation_up": 22.8, "upward_expansion": 22.45, "deceleration": 55.34, "rotation_down": 48.05, "downward_expansion": 38.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.223262, 7.271752, 7.31235, 7.284405 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.1, "trend_reference": 7.238298, "distance_from_trend": -0.019106, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.861996, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.034684, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.652698, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.008245, "excess_performance": 0.048803, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019106, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008731, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.034684, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037675, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046527, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066081, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008245, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.916667, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1700, "relative_activity": 0.913978, "balance": 0.916667, "dry_up": 1.639785, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038662, "annualized_volatility": 0.184226, "from_high_reference": -0.088575, "from_low_reference": 0.143843 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.238298, "fair_value_reference": 6.861996, "structural_low": 6.481823, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013182, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.009205, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.021372, "worst_return": -0.04716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.024652, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.059215, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.016783, "worst_return": -0.043142, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.017149, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.057897, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.031936, "worst_return": -0.02813, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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7.346928, 7.289065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.023535, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 1355.0, "trend": 7.215364, "fair_value": 6.879319, "relative_strength": -10.169722, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.844438, "energy": 9.542624, "activity_lines": [ 7.278562, 7.336297, 7.323204, 7.275869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.170471, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 1355.0, "trend": 7.219909, "fair_value": 6.87582, "relative_strength": -5.672615, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.826478, "energy": 19.261842, "activity_lines": [ 7.217819, 7.304863, 7.313612, 7.272972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.601483, "volume": 4800, "typical_volume": 1565.0, "trend": 7.232483, "fair_value": 6.874287, "relative_strength": 0.120502, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.345307, "energy": 21.976935, "activity_lines": [ 7.325243, 7.35598, 7.3446, 7.29759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.17, "volume": 4400, "typical_volume": 1775.0, "trend": 7.241878, "fair_value": 6.871318, "relative_strength": -7.113074, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.256134, "energy": 8.750477, "activity_lines": [ 7.27872, 7.319826, 7.332019, 7.293559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.1, "volume": 1700, "typical_volume": 1860.0, "trend": 7.238298, "fair_value": 6.861996, "relative_strength": -4.652698, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.778753, "energy": 17.019407, "activity_lines": [ 7.223262, 7.271752, 7.31235, 7.284405 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }