{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c16d0d2-7771-43b6-86a5-7a02d12db402", "symbol": "C500", "name": "Invesco Markets plc - Invesco S&P China A MidCap 500 Swap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.476, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.957, "architecture_energy": 36.673, "architecture_maturity": 40.057, "architecture_confidence": 60.245, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.17, "rotation_up": 16.68, "upward_expansion": 19.28, "deceleration": 70.16, "rotation_down": 65.93, "downward_expansion": 41.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.000267, 8.262745, 8.33231, 8.232245 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.314, "trend_reference": 8.105633, "distance_from_trend": 0.025706, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.622942, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.478585, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.049332, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.080723, "excess_performance": -0.090169, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025706, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072145, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.478585, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117673, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040493, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166565, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080723, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.842186, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28929, "relative_activity": 4.204644, "balance": 0.842186, "dry_up": 1.549471, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044031, "annualized_volatility": 0.29317, "from_high_reference": -0.082036, "from_low_reference": 0.483848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.105633, "fair_value_reference": 5.622942, "structural_low": 7.043, "invalidation": "A 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"up", "direction": 79.214517, "energy": 90.988146, "activity_lines": [ 8.8898, 8.708582, 8.409819, 8.220181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.703, "volume": 10689, "typical_volume": 6552.05, "trend": 7.983767, "fair_value": 5.540196, "relative_strength": 3.316917, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.074594, "energy": 85.605186, "activity_lines": [ 8.873467, 8.729618, 8.458057, 8.27114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.639, "volume": 5331, "typical_volume": 6162.45, "trend": 8.013333, "fair_value": 5.559663, "relative_strength": -8.202856, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.806894, "energy": 21.341335, "activity_lines": [ 8.4792, 8.548073, 8.4016, 8.248897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.803, "volume": 1211, "typical_volume": 5734.5, "trend": 8.048367, "fair_value": 5.579827, "relative_strength": -6.268461, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.597578, "energy": 19.864101, "activity_lines": [ 8.186, 8.411782, 8.363138, 8.235327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.761, "volume": 7172, "typical_volume": 5656.9, "trend": 8.0744, "fair_value": 5.598843, "relative_strength": -7.558519, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.556985, "energy": 42.756519, "activity_lines": [ 7.958667, 8.2798, 8.32091, 8.216787 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.314, "volume": 28929, "typical_volume": 6880.25, "trend": 8.105633, "fair_value": 5.622942, "relative_strength": -4.049332, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.957078, "energy": 36.672646, "activity_lines": [ 8.000267, 8.262745, 8.33231, 8.232245 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }