{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c1bd53a-3ca0-4a8d-a3f3-72efb77a576e", "symbol": "ARW", "name": "Arrow Electronics Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.978, "architecture_energy": 25.721, "architecture_maturity": 64.96, "architecture_confidence": 95.664, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.84, "rotation_up": 29.54, "upward_expansion": 55.54, "deceleration": 90.92, "rotation_down": 26.57, "downward_expansion": 19.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 209.351333, 210.652182, 208.254524, 196.26372 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 203.51, "trend_reference": 178.96, "distance_from_trend": 0.137181, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 131.518846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.547383, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 19.950495, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.283165, "excess_performance": 0.15754, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.137181, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.235189, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.547383, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012848, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.199505, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131541, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.283165, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.798475, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3849263, "relative_activity": 1.239459, "balance": 1.798475, "dry_up": 0.89776, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091607, "annualized_volatility": 0.359824, "from_high_reference": -0.142512, "from_low_reference": 0.999312 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 178.96, "fair_value_reference": 131.518846, "structural_low": 132.62, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.003075, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005405, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.339397, "worst_return": -0.057118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.052417, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.063245, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.540858, "worst_return": -0.075937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.036532, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.054279, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.311936, "worst_return": -0.082865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057815, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082573, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031779, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087479, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013029, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.178881, "active": false }, { 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212.27, "volume": 2273195, "typical_volume": 3035071.7, "trend": 172.558333, "fair_value": 130.454359, "relative_strength": 32.963556, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.444839, "energy": 24.866351, "activity_lines": [ 207.808667, 212.385636, 204.981143, 191.650022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 216.57, "volume": 2713675, "typical_volume": 3030390.05, "trend": 176.009333, "fair_value": 131.035, "relative_strength": 32.961819, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.561574, "energy": 32.323642, "activity_lines": [ 210.804, 212.699273, 207.421, 194.489484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 203.51, "volume": 3849263, "typical_volume": 3105599.95, "trend": 178.96, "fair_value": 131.518846, "relative_strength": 19.950495, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.977848, "energy": 25.720951, "activity_lines": [ 209.351333, 210.652182, 208.254524, 196.26372 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }