{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c1f5eb6-f33f-468d-9959-82d298f02af9", "symbol": "002578", "name": "Fujian Minfa Aluminium Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.671, "architecture_energy": 56.692, "architecture_maturity": 42.026, "architecture_confidence": 90.027, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 20.32, "upward_expansion": 9.17, "deceleration": 58.9, "rotation_down": 60.94, "downward_expansion": 82.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.052, 3.110727, 3.416905, 3.610409 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.39, "trend_reference": 3.876333, "distance_from_trend": -0.125462, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.431309, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.012039, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.493107, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.264642, "excess_performance": -0.272042, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125462, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089279, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.012039, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.240804, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154931, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056634, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.264642, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.841513, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 169863080, "relative_activity": 1.093162, "balance": 0.841513, "dry_up": 0.894278, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098026, "annualized_volatility": 0.465773, "from_high_reference": -0.379121, "from_low_reference": 0.279245 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.876333, "fair_value_reference": 3.431309, "structural_low": 2.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.003676, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.004377, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.303644, "worst_return": -0.193182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.064972, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.045838, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.291498, "worst_return": -0.185861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.051458, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.104825, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.242424, "worst_return": -0.160356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.636711, "energy": 90.843483, "activity_lines": [ 3.208, 3.473091, 3.709429, 3.872237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.84, "volume": 136931400, "typical_volume": 162951625.1, "trend": 4.033333, "fair_value": 3.443681, "relative_strength": -27.506833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.002612, "energy": 93.097385, "activity_lines": [ 3.05, 3.321455, 3.610095, 3.791742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.76, "volume": 143380396, "typical_volume": 159226794.9, "trend": 3.974333, "fair_value": 3.437679, "relative_strength": -29.36297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.237566, "energy": 92.052169, "activity_lines": [ 2.919333, 3.180727, 3.511952, 3.709591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.96, "volume": 105661813, "typical_volume": 155151727.4, "trend": 3.913, "fair_value": 3.433147, "relative_strength": -22.623607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.614838, "energy": 84.571883, "activity_lines": [ 2.906, 3.096909, 3.440905, 3.644151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.39, "volume": 169863080, "typical_volume": 155386981.1, "trend": 3.876333, "fair_value": 3.431309, "relative_strength": -15.493107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.670602, "energy": 56.692408, "activity_lines": [ 3.052, 3.110727, 3.416905, 3.610409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }